2017 News

February 10, 2017

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February Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

The ultimate contest in dirt racing, won by a long line of star horses
Of the 20 winners since the February Stakes was upgraded to Grade 1 status in 1997, more than two-thirds (14) had also culled wins in other G1 races, as well as top-level NAR graded dirt races (as of December 2016). In other words, the February Stakes has so far presented six horses with their only lifetime G1 win – or five, if we exclude the currently active Moanin (winner in 2016). The 2014 winner Copano Rickey was poorly favored, with win odds of 272.1 (16th favorite), but had won eight G1 and top-level NAR races by the end of 2016 (including the following year’s February Stakes), and took the title of Best Dirt Horse in the 2015 JRA Awards. So which of this year’s runners will win this first JRA G1 race of 2017, to stand alongside so many famous horses over the last two decades? This time, let’s analyze features shared by successful runners in this race from results over the last 10 years.

Look for a good finish last time out
Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 26 had finished “In the Top 3” in their previous outing. By contrast, horses finishing “4th or lower” last time out have struggled to impress, only managing a Top 3 ratio of 5.2%. We should not expect much success from runners coming straight from a finish of 4th or lower in their previous race. [Table 1]

[Table 1] Performance by finish in previous race (last 10 years)
Finish in previous race Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
In the Top 3 9-8-9-56 11.0% 20.7% 31.7%
4th or lower 1-2-1-73 1.3% 3.9% 5.2%

However, of the four Top 3 finishers coming straight from a finish of “4th or lower” last time out, all except 2014 winner Copano Rickey had won the previous year’s Mile Championship Nambu Hai (Morioka). A horse that won the previous autumn’s Mile Championship Nambu Hai (a 1,600m dirt race like this one) should be worth a punt, even if finishing “4th or lower” last time out. [Table 2]

[Table 2] Top 3 finishers beaten to "4th or lower" last time out (last 10 years)
Year Finish Horse Finish last time out Finish in previous year’s Mile Championship Nambu Hai
2008 2nd Blue Concorde 5th 1st
2013 2nd Espoir City 5th 1st
2014 1st Copano Rickey 9th Did not run
2015 3rd Best Warrior 11th 1st

Check for runners last seen in 1,800m+ races
Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 25 had most recently run in races over distances of “1,800m or more.” By contrast, runners last seen in races run over “Less than 1,800m” have been less successful, with a Top 3 ratio of only 6.3%. When comparing the runners’ pre-race build-up, we should be focusing on horses coming straight from races run over “1,800m or more.” [Table 3]

[Table 3] Performance by distance of previous race (last 10 years)
Distance of previous race Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
Less than 1,800m 2-1-2-74 2.5% 3.8% 6.3%
1,800m or more 8-9-8-55 10.0% 21.3% 31.3%

Meanwhile, of the five Top 3 finishers last appearing over distances of “Less than 1,800m,” all except 2012 winner Testa Matta had won that year’s Negishi Stakes in their previous outing. Of runners coming straight from races with distances of “Less than 1,800m,” we should have low expectations unless the previous outing ended with victory in the Negishi Stakes. [Table 4]

[Table 4] Top 3 finishers racing over "Less than 1,800m" last time out (last 10 years)
Year Finish Horse Previous race Finish in previous race
2007 3rd Big Grass Negishi Stakes 1st
2008 3rd Wild Wonder Negishi Stakes 1st
2012 1st Testa Matta Negishi Stakes 3rd
2nd Silk Fortune Negishi Stakes 1st
2016 1st Moanin Negishi Stakes 1st

Expect little from runners with low favoritism last time out
All 20 Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years had most recently appeared in a “Domestic race” and had been “5th favorite or higher” to win that race. Conversely, horses billed as “6th favorite or lower” last time out have a Top 3 ratio of only 4.8%. When comparing the runners’ previous race, we should check not only the finish and conditions but also the favoritism. [Table 5]

[Table 5] Performance by favoritism in the previous race when it was a "Domestic race" (last 10 years)
Favoritism in previous race Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
5th favorite or higher 10-10-8-88 8.6% 17.2% 24.1%
6th favorite or lower 0-0-2-40 0% 0% 4.8%

Heavier horses tend to succeed
Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 23 had weighed in at “500kg or more” for their previous race. By contrast, those weighing “Less than 500kg” last time out have tended to struggle, marking a Top 3 ratio of 10.6%. What’s more, the most recent winner with a body weight of “Less than 500kg” last time out was Sunrise Bacchus in 2007; every winner in the nine years since then weighed “500kg or more” in their previous race. When comparing pre-race data, the horse’s weight could be seen as an important pointer, alongside performance. [Table 6]

[Table 6] Performance by body weight last time out (last 10 years)
Body weight in previous race Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
Less than 500kg 1-4-2-59 1.5% 7.6% 10.6%
500kg or more 9-6-8-70 9.7% 16.1% 24.7%

In recent years, importance of a good record in JRA dirt races
All 15 Top 3 finishers over the last 5 years had previous experience of a Top 3 finish in “JRA open-class dirt race over 1,600-1,800m” since the previous year. In recent years, few runners lacking this experience have failed to live up to strong favoritism in this race, including Curren Black Hill in 2013 (finishing 15th as 1st favorite) and White Fugue in 2016 (10th as 5th favorite). We should not overestimate the chances of runners that lack this kind of record in JRA open-class dirt races since the previous year (such as horses mainly active in turf races or NAR graded dirt races). [Table 7]

[Table 7] Performance by experience of a Top 3 finish in "JRA open-class dirt 1,600-1,800 races" since the previous year (last 5 years)
Experience Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
Yes 5-5-5-34 10.2% 20.4% 30.6%
No 0-0-0-31 0% 0% 0%

Seek out the winner!
Check the course aptitude
Each of the last five winners had previously experienced a Top 3 finish in “1,600m open-class dirt races held at Tokyo.” Other features shared by these five are that they had all been “5th favorite or higher” last time out, had weighed “500kg or more” last time out, and had experienced a Top 3 finish in “JRA open-class dirt 1,600-1,800 races since the previous year.” Any horse that has demonstrated strong course aptitude and has cleared the conditions set in Tables 5, 6 and 7 must be considered a leading contender to win this race. [Table 8]

[Table 8] Winning horses' "Highest finish in 1,600m open-class dirt races held at Tokyo," "Favoritism last time out," "Weight last time out" and "Highest finish in JRA open-class dirt 1,600-1,800 races since the previous year" (last 5 years)
Year  Winning horse Highest finish in 1,600m open-class dirt races held at Tokyo Favoritism last time out Weight last time out Highest finish in JRA open-class dirt 1,600-1,800 races since the previous year
2012 Testa Matta 2nd (2010 February Stakes) 5th favorite 502kg 1st (2011 March Stakes)
2013 Grape Brandy 2nd (2011 Unicorn Stakes) 4th favorite 532kg 1st (2013 Tokai Stakes, etc.)
2014 Copano Rickey 3rd (2013 Hyacinth Stakes) 3rd favorite 526kg 1st (2013 Fukuryu Stakes)
2015 Copano Rickey 1st (2014 February Stakes) 1st favorite 538kg 1st (2015 Tokai Stakes, etc.)
2016 Moanin 3rd (2015 Musashino Stakes) 1st favorite 526kg 3rd (2015 Musashino Stakes)

 

(Masaya Ibuki)

February Stakes (G1) related contents
Breeders' Cup Challenge Race