Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Fillies and colts clash in this decider for champion 2-year-old miler
With the year-end Hopeful Stakes elevated to G1 status from this year, the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes can no longer lay claim to the title of “champion 2-year-old decider,” as it was until last year. Nevertheless, its importance as a contest of speed and current perfection over 1,600 meters remains intact. And while last week’s Hanshin Juvenile Fillies was limited to fillies only (as the name suggests), a notable feature of this one is that it pits colts against fillies. A talking point last year was that, of the two fillies in contention, Mi Suerte was the race favorite. Let’s now check trends in this race from results over the last 10 years (including the years up to 2013, when it was held at Nakayama Racecourse).

Check the performance by favoritism
If we first check performances by favoritism over the last 10 years, we find that 13 of the 20 horses finishing 2nd and 3rd in that time had been backed as 4th favorite or lower. In other words, unfancied runners often do well in this race. Again, analysis by win odds shows that no horse backed by odds of “1.9 or lower” has won the race in the last 10 years. Even so, nine of the 10 winners came with odds of less than 15; the only exception was Logotype, 7th favorite with 34.5 in 2012. [Table 1] [Table 2]

Key pointers in performance by previous race
Turning next to aggregate performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, the G2 races Keio Hai Nisai Stakes and Daily Hai Nisai Stakes have only produced one winner here; in fact, runners coming straight from the G3 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes have enjoyed more success. Another worrying statistic is that no horse most recently seen in an open class stakes race has finished in the Top 3 here. Incidentally, the majority of good performers coming straight from one-win class races had contested those races at Tokyo Racecourse. All 23 horses coming from "Kyoto or Hanshin one-win class races" have been beaten to 3rd or lower. [Table 3]

Look for winners last time out
In performances over the last 10 years by the finish in the previous race, runners with a win last time out are unsurprisingly dominant, with nine wins here. By complete contrast, no runner finishing 2nd in its previous outing has won this race during that time. What's more, only one horse – 2011 runner-up Meiner Robusto – has recovered from 5th or lower last time out to manage a Top 3 finish here. [Table 4]

Heavier horses do better
Looking at aggregate performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their body weight, eight of the 10 winners in that time weighed 480kg or more, and six of them 500kg or more. On the other hand, only one horse finishing 2nd and 3rd, respectively, has weighed in at 500kg or more. This statistic may come in handy when putting together our predictions. [Table 5]

Look for a win as 1st favorite in the debut race
In the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes over the last 10 years, horses that had "won their newcomer race as 1st favorite" have finished in the Top 2 every year except 2009. Of these, all except 2011 winner Alfredo and 2012 winner Logotype had finished at least 1 1/4 lengths ahead of the runner-up in their debut. Another point to note is that eight of the 11 horses in question had been backed by win odds in the 1.0-1.9 range in those newcomer races. [Table 6]

Seek out the winner!
Three straight wins by horses with experience of a Top 2 finish from the outer bracket
In each of the three years since this race moved to Hanshin in 2014, the winner had past experience of a "Top 2 finish when starting from the outermost bracket." It could be interesting to check the horse number and finish in past races to see if a horse with this experience could win again this year. [Table 7]

(Yasunori Asano)