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December 7, 2017

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Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Fillies and colts clash in this decider for champion 2-year-old miler
With the year-end Hopeful Stakes elevated to G1 status from this year, the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes can no longer lay claim to the title of “champion 2-year-old decider,” as it was until last year. Nevertheless, its importance as a contest of speed and current perfection over 1,600 meters remains intact. And while last week’s Hanshin Juvenile Fillies was limited to fillies only (as the name suggests), a notable feature of this one is that it pits colts against fillies. A talking point last year was that, of the two fillies in contention, Mi Suerte was the race favorite. Let’s now check trends in this race from results over the last 10 years (including the years up to 2013, when it was held at Nakayama Racecourse).

Check the performance by favoritism
If we first check performances by favoritism over the last 10 years, we find that 13 of the 20 horses finishing 2nd and 3rd in that time had been backed as 4th favorite or lower. In other words, unfancied runners often do well in this race. Again, analysis by win odds shows that no horse backed by odds of “1.9 or lower” has won the race in the last 10 years. Even so, nine of the 10 winners came with odds of less than 15; the only exception was Logotype, 7th favorite with 34.5 in 2012. [Table 1] [Table 2]

[Table 1] Performance by favoritism (last 10 years)
Favoritism Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1st favorite 3-2-1-4 30.0% 50.0% 60.0%
2nd favorite 2-1-1-6 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
3rd favorite 1-0-2-7 10.0% 10.0% 30.0%
4th favorite 1-2-1-6 10.0% 30.0% 40.0%
5th favorite 1-1-2-6 10.0% 20.0% 40.0%
6th, 7th favorite 2-2-0-16 10.0% 20.0% 20.0%
8th favorite or lower 0-2-3-89 0% 2.1% 5.3%
[Table 2] Performance by win odds (last 10 years)
Win odds Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1.9 or lower 0-2-0-1 0% 66.7% 66.7%
2.0-4.9 3-0-1-6 30.0% 30.0% 40.0%
5.0-6.9 3-2-2-7 21.4% 35.7% 50.0%
7.0-9.9 1-1-1-7 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%
10.0-14.9 2-1-3-14 10.0% 15.0% 30.0%
15.0-19.9 0-2-1-7 0% 20.0% 30.0%
20.0-49.9 1-1-0-35 2.7% 5.4% 5.4%
50 or higher 0-1-2-57 0% 1.7% 5.0%

Key pointers in performance by previous race
Turning next to aggregate performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, the G2 races Keio Hai Nisai Stakes and Daily Hai Nisai Stakes have only produced one winner here; in fact, runners coming straight from the G3 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes have enjoyed more success. Another worrying statistic is that no horse most recently seen in an open class stakes race has finished in the Top 3 here. Incidentally, the majority of good performers coming straight from one-win class races had contested those races at Tokyo Racecourse. All 23 horses coming from "Kyoto or Hanshin one-win class races" have been beaten to 3rd or lower. [Table 3]

[Table 3] Performance by previous race (last 10 years)
Previous race Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
Keio Hai Nisai Stakes 1-5-2-31 2.6% 15.4% 20.5%
Daily Hai Nisai Stakes 0-2-2-15 0% 10.5% 21.1%
Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes 2-2-1-14 10.5% 21.1% 26.3%
Other graded races 1-0-1-9 9.1% 9.1% 18.2%
Open class stakes races 0-0-0-20 0% 0% 0%
Tokyo races 1-win class 4-1-1-11 23.5% 29.4% 35.3%
Nakayama, Niigata, Fukushima
1-win class
1-0-1-3 20.0% 20.0% 40.0%
Kyoto, Hanshin 1-win class 0-0-2-21 0% 0% 8.7%
Newcomer or maiden races 1-0-0-10 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%

Look for winners last time out
In performances over the last 10 years by the finish in the previous race, runners with a win last time out are unsurprisingly dominant, with nine wins here. By complete contrast, no runner finishing 2nd in its previous outing has won this race during that time. What's more, only one horse – 2011 runner-up Meiner Robusto – has recovered from 5th or lower last time out to manage a Top 3 finish here. [Table 4]

[Table 4] Performance by finish last time out (last 10 years)
Finish last time out Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1st 9-5-7-63 10.7% 16.7% 25.0%
2nd 0-2-2-22 0% 7.7% 15.4%
3rd, 4th 1-2-1-14 5.6% 16.7% 22.2%
5th or lower 0-1-0-35 0% 2.8% 2.8%

Heavier horses do better
Looking at aggregate performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their body weight, eight of the 10 winners in that time weighed 480kg or more, and six of them 500kg or more. On the other hand, only one horse finishing 2nd and 3rd, respectively, has weighed in at 500kg or more. This statistic may come in handy when putting together our predictions. [Table 5]

[Table 5] Performance by body weight (last 10 years)
Experience Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
438kg or less 0-0-0-4 0% 0% 0%
440-458kg 1-1-3-26 3.2% 6.5% 16.1%
460-478kg 1-5-2-49 1.8% 10.5% 14.0%
480-498kg 2-3-4-39 4.2% 10.4% 18.8%
500-518kg 4-1-1-11 23.5% 29.4% 35.3%
520kg or more 2-0-0-5 28.6% 28.6% 28.6%

Look for a win as 1st favorite in the debut race
In the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes over the last 10 years, horses that had "won their newcomer race as 1st favorite" have finished in the Top 2 every year except 2009. Of these, all except 2011 winner Alfredo and 2012 winner Logotype had finished at least 1 1/4 lengths ahead of the runner-up in their debut. Another point to note is that eight of the 11 horses in question had been backed by win odds in the 1.0-1.9 range in those newcomer races. [Table 6]

[Table 6] Top 2 finishers with wins as 1st favorite in their newcomer race (last 10 years)
Year Finish Horse Win odds and winning distance in newcomer race
2007 1st Goshawk Ken 1.7 2 1/2 lengths
2008 2nd Fifth Petal 2.7 2 1/2 lengths
2010 2nd Real Impact 1.3 3 lengths
2011 1st Alfredo 2.2 1/2 length
2012 1st Logotype 1.9 Neck
2nd Codino 1.4 2 1/2 lengths
2013 1st Asia Express 1.6 5 lengths
2014 2nd Arma Waioli 1.8 3 1/2 lengths
2015 1st Leontes 2.2 1 1/2 lengths
2nd Air Spinel 1.9 2 lengths
2016 2nd Monde Can Know 1.5 1 1/4 lengths

Seek out the winner!
Three straight wins by horses with experience of a Top 2 finish from the outer bracket

In each of the three years since this race moved to Hanshin in 2014, the winner had past experience of a "Top 2 finish when starting from the outermost bracket." It could be interesting to check the horse number and finish in past races to see if a horse with this experience could win again this year. [Table 7]

[Table 7] Race in which last 3 winners had a Top 2 finish when starting from the outermost bracket
Year Winner Race in question
2014 Danon Platina 2 races back Maiden No. 18 out of 18 1st
2015 Leontes Last race Newcomer No. 15 out of 15 1st
2016 Satono Ares 4 races back Newcomer No. 7 out of 7 2nd

(Yasunori Asano)

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