Osaka Hai (G1) - Data Analysis

All eyes on race in second year after upgrade to G1 status
The Osaka Hai was upgraded to G1 status in 2017, and that race was won by favorite Kitasan Black in accordance with expectations. This year, the Osaka Hai will again open the spring G1 season for middle- to long-distance races for older horses. The inner oval of the Hanshin Racecourse is a turf course that requires skillful maneuvering, so we need to bear this in mind when putting together our predictions. This time, let’s look at the data for the last 10 years, including 2016 and previous years, when the Osaka Hai was still held as a G2 race.

Dark horses cannot be ruled out
Looking at performances by favoritism and win odds over the last 10 years, we observe that race favorites achieved a Top 3 ratio of 90%. In particular, race favorites backed by odds of 2.9 or lower delivered performances of [3-3-2-0] (Top 3 ratio of 100%). Conversely, 3rd-5th favorites each had Top 2 ratios of 10.0%, a poor showing. Other notable findings are the fact that 6th favorites produced two winners and one runner-up, while 7th-9th favorites delivered four runners-up. [Table 1] [Table 2]

Winners last time out fare poorly in this race
Looking at performances by finish in the previous race over the last 10 years, runners finishing 1st in the previous race were all beaten to 2nd or lower. Conversely, runners that finished 2nd in the previous race produced seven winners, a strong showing. Runners that finished 3rd-5th in the previous race also exhibited decent performance, so the interesting fact here is that winners in the previous race fare poorly. [Table 3]

Check performance from previous autumn
Looking at the Osaka Hai over the last 10 years, we observe that, with the exception of 2008 and 2013, horses that came in “4th-6th in a G1 or G2 race held in the period starting from the previous autumn”, finished in the Top 2. If horses that match this profile enter the race this year, it would seem a good idea to keep an eye on them. [Table 4]

Look for favoritism and finish in graded races
Looking at performances in recent Osaka Hai races, we observe that horses that “until four races back were backed as 6th or 7th favorite in graded races but finished these races ahead of their ranking in favoritism”, have finished in the Top 2 of the Osaka Hai race each year since 2009. When analyzing past performance of runners appearing in this race, it would be a good idea to check whether any runner has this kind of experience. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Three consecutive wins by horses for which third last race was G2 race held in September or October of previous year!
Looking at the Osaka Hai in the last three years, we observe that the winners were horses whose “third last race was a G2 race held in September or October of the previous year”. Perhaps their favorable performance can be attributed to the fact that the horses appeared in few races from autumn of the previous year and therefore were able to enter this race following a less intensive race schedule. Incidentally, 2017 winner Kitasan Black contested his third last race in the Kyoto Daishoten, his second last race in the Japan Cup, and his previous race in the Arima Kinen, and the Osaka Hai marked his first race of 2017. [Table 6]

(Yasunori Asano)