Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1) – Data Analysis

Ultimate battle over 2,400m turf
A distance of 2,400m is likely to be a first experience for most 3-year-old fillies, and requires comprehensive strength (i.e., not only speed, but also stamina) to rise to the top. This year again, the major check point will be whether the runners can cope with the distance. Let’s now analyze the results over the last 10 years, looking at trends in this race that often unfolds into a fierce, full-field battle.

Runners backed by high favoritism enjoy success
Of the 11 winners in the last 10 years (two runners tied for 1st in 2010), nine were backed by win odds of less than 10. The same applied to six of the nine runners-up. However, only three of the third-place finishers were backed by win odds of less than 10, with the remaining seven having win odds of 10 or higher. Although Erin Court (7th favorite) and Meisho Mambo (9th favorite) both triumphed with win odds in the “20.0-49.9” range, the overall trend suggest that runners backed by high favoritism perform well in this race. [Table 1]

Strong showing by runners with 4-6 previous career starts
Looking at performances of runners over the last 10 years by total career starts, we find that runners with 4-6 previous career starts have dominated. Runners with 6 previous starts have delivered three winners in the last 10 years, but zero runners-up, and only one third-place finisher, resulting in poor Top 2 and Top 3 ratios. [Table 2]

Check performance in previous race
Looking at performances of runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that 29 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had contested their previous race in the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), the Wasurenagusa Sho, or the Sankei Sports Sho Flora Stakes (Japanese Oaks Trial), with the remaining runner having entered the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas). 

The main group is the one composed of runners that had contested the Oka Sho. If we look at performances in this group in terms of finish in that race, we find that runners with a Top 3 finish in the Oka Sho performed well in this race as well. There have been two runners over the last 10 years that recovered from 6th or lower in the Oka Sho to triumph in this race (Tall Poppy in 2008 and Meisho Mambo in 2013), but both runners were backed as 4th favorite or higher in the Oka Sho. [Table 3] [Table 4]

Watch performance in previous autumn
Looking at the Yushun Himba over the last 10 years, we observe that runners that had triumphed in “a race held in October or November of the previous year” have delivered one Top 2 finisher in each year other than 2012. In 2017, the Yushun Himba was won by Soul Stirring, which had dominated the Ivy Stakes on October 22 of the previous year. Accordingly, it would be a good idea to check the track record of runners in this year’s race. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Check recent favoritism and finish
Of the nine winners in the last eight years, the eight runners excluding Saint Emilion in 2010 (when two runners tied for 1st) had “until four races back finished either first in a race in which they were backed as 2nd favorite or 2nd in a race in which they were backed as 3rd favorite.” The races in question were all 1-win class stakes races or open-class races. If any of this year’s runners come with this kind of record, we should check them out. [Table 6]

(Yasunori Asano)