Sprinters Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Ultimate contest for top sprinters
Of the 10 runners that won the JRA Award for Best Sprinter in 2008­-2017, nine (excluding Maurice in 2015) finished in the Top 2 of the Sprinters Stakes of the corresponding year. The winner of last year’s Sprinters Stakes, Red Falx, also collected the award after receiving 264 votes out of 290. This suggests the Sprinters Stakes plays an important role in deciding which currently active runner deserves the title of fastest sprinter. In addition, the last winner to finish the Sprinters Stakes at least 1 length ahead of the runner-up was Curren Chan in 2011 (lead of 1¾ lengths). This means the last six races have been close contests won by less than a length. To determine which runner is most likely to take the crown in this fierce battle, let’s analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years, including the 1,200m race held at Niigata Racecourse in 2014.

Performance since the turn of the year is important
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in the last 10 years, 14 had experience of winning “a 1,400m+ JRA race in the same year.” This group achieved a Top 3 ratio of 56.0%. Only three of the runners that entered the 2016 and 2017 Sprinters Stakes had such experience, but all three finished in the Top 3. Accordingly, it may be worth taking another look at horses with such a track record this year. [Table 1]

Among the runners with no experience of winning “a 1,400m+ JRA race in the same year,” those that had also not experienced a Top 4 finish in “a JRA G1 race in the same year” struggled with a Top 3 ratio of only 6.3%. Runners that finished in the Top 2 of such a race were 2008 winner Sleepless Night and 2010 winner Ultra Fantasy (Hong Kong-trained horse contesting its first JRA race). In other words, we also need to watch performance in major races since the turn of the year. [Table 2]

Watch finish and favoritism last time out
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in the last 10 years, 21 finished their previous race in the Top 4. Meanwhile, runners that finished their previous race “5th or lower” have struggled somewhat with a Top 3 ratio of 11.0%. In other words, we should essentially watch runners that exhibited strong performance last time out [Table 3]

Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in the last 10 years, 26 contested “a domestic race” last time out and were backed as “4th favorite or higher” in that race. Conversely, runners that were backed as “5th favorite or lower” in such a race had a Top 3 ratio of only 4.8%. Accordingly, in addition to runners with strong finishes in their previous race, runners that were highly favored in their last outing should also be rated highly. [Table 4]

Discount horses with a change of jockey
The 20 Top 2 finishers in the last 10 years were all horses ridden by the same jockey as in their previous outing. Horses that entered the race with a different jockey from their previous outing struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 8.1%. This suggests we should lower our expectations of horses ridden by a different jockey from their previous outing. [Table 5]

Strong performance by fillies & mares in recent years
Of the 12 Top 3 finishers in the last four years, seven were fillies/mares. Although fillies and mares also delivered strong performance in earlier years, their success ratios have been particularly high in recent years, so we should definitely take this into account. [Table 6]

Expect little from front runner-type horses
Of the 12 Top 3 finishers in the last four years, 11 contested “a domestic race” last time out and were in “3rd position or lower” when passing the 4th corner in that race. Meanwhile, runners that were in “2nd position or higher” when passing the 4th corner produced zero Top 2 finishers and had a Top 3 ratio of only 7.1%. Prior to 2013, runners that were in “2nd position or higher” when passing the 4th corner in their previous race delivered strong performances, but we should lower our expectations of such runners if trends in recent years are anything to go by. [Table 7]

Seek out the winner!
Majority of winners have been 4 to 6-year-olds
The four last winners were all 5 or 6-year-olds. In addition, looking back at the last 18 races since 2000, when the race was moved to the current racing calendar, we observe that winners have often been 4 to 6-year-olds. The only 3-year-old to have triumphed since 2000 was Aston Machan in 2007, and the only two horses 7-year-olds or older that won the race were Takeover Target (7yo) in 2006 and Ultra Fantasy (8yo) in 2010. In other words, it would seem wise to focus on 4 to 6-year-olds. Other statistics shared by the four last winners are that they were among the Top 4 favorites in their last outing, that they were ridden by the same jockey as in their last outing, and that they were in 8th position or lower when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. This means we should also take into account the trends highlighted in Tables 4, 5, and 7. [Table 8]

(Masaya Ibuki)