Shuka Sho (G1) - Data Analysis

Race to decide autumn 3-year-old filly champion
The Shuka Sho has seen many strong showings by unfavored runners in the past, and the favorite runners in the last two races finished 10th and 7th, respectively. Runners that previously enjoyed success in spring G1 races have also turned in strong performances, as have runners with a solid track record in races held from summer through autumn. As in previous years, analyzing the relative strengths of the runners in this year’s race promises to be a difficult task, but let’s look for some trends in results over the last 10 years.

Higher favorites do better, but …
Nine of the last 10 winners were backed as third favorite or higher. Setting aside the unpredictable outcome in 2008 (Top 3 in finishing order: 11th favorite, 8th favorite, and 16th favorite), winners in subsequent years have all been runners that were backed as 3rd favorite or higher. In addition, six runners-up have been backed as 4th-8th favorites, and seven third-place finishers as 4th favorites or lower. However, runners backed by odds of 30 or higher have produced zero Top 2 finishers. [Table 1] [Table 2]

Also watch performance by previous race
Looking at performances over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we observe that the 10 runners coming straight from the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) race were all beaten to 6th or lower. Conversely, runners coming from the trial race, Rose Stakes, produced six winners, and eight runners-up. Other strong performers included runners that had previously contested the Shion Stakes (after it was upgraded to G3 status). The latter was held as an Open race until 2015, after which it was upgraded to G3 status. Runners coming straight from the G3 Shion Stakes produced the winner in the two years since it was upgraded to G3 (2016, 2017), including a one-two finish in 2016. [Table 3]

Focus on strong performers in previous race
Looking at performances over the last 10 years in terms of finish in the previous race, we find that many of the Top 3 finishers in the Shuka Sho finished their previous race in the Top 2. Two runners that finished their previous race 4th won the Shuka Sho, and both of these had also triumphed in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (Apapane in 2010 and Meisho Mambo in 2013). Runners that finished their previous race 6th or lower produced one winner (Black Emblem in 2008) and three third-place finishers, but otherwise struggled with lackluster success ratios. [Table 4]

Also look at runners that have finished 4th or 5th in recent race
Over the last 10 years, runners that “until four races back finished 4th or 5th in a Graded or Open class race” have consistently finished in the Top 2 of the Shuka Sho. If any of this year’s runners come with this kind of record, it may be worth checking them out. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Watch runners with strong record in a turf 2,000m race
The last four winners “had triumphed in a turf 2,000m race” two or three races back. It may therefore be a good idea to watch runners that have recently won over the same distance as the Shuka Sho. [Table 6]

(Yasunori Asano)