Mile Championship (G1) - Data Analysis

Mile champion decider in which dark horses cannot not be discounted

In the 11 Mile Championship races held from its launch in 1984 to 1994, race favorites consistently finished in the Top 2. However, this trend has changed in recent years, with race favorites only producing four Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years. In addition, race favorites in the last five years were all beaten to 3rd or lower. The question is of course whether this scenario will play out again this year. Let’s now look for some trends in this race based on data from the last 10 years.

Focus on 4-year-olds & 5-year-olds
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that 4-year-olds and 5-year-olds have enjoyed success. Although last year’s race was won by 3-year-old Persian Knight, 3-year-olds have only secured three other wins in the previous 34 Mile Championship races: Soccer Boy in 1988, Taiki Shuttle in 1997, and Agnes Digital in 2000. Similarly, runners aged 7 and above have produced only one Top 3 finisher: winner of the race in 2009, 8-year-old Company. [Table 1]

Watch for dark horses
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we observe that eight of the 10 winners were runners backed as 5th favorite or higher. However, runners backed as 1st-3rd favorites have produced only one winner from each group, and runners backed as 4th favorite have won the race four times. Of the 10 runners-up, eight were backed as 3rd favorite or higher. Turning to performances by win odds, the fact that runners with win odds in the “10.0-19.9” range produced three winners, five third-place finishers, but zero runners-up, is also worthy of attention. [Table 2] [Table 3]

Watch finish in previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in their previous race, we note that runners that won their previous race performed well. Runners that finished 2nd in their previous race produced four Top 2 finishers, but runners that finished 3rd delivered zero Top 2 finishers. In addition, runners that finished 6th-9th in their previous race produced three winners, which is also an interesting statistic. Finally, runners that finished 10th or lower in their previous race were all beaten to 4th or lower. [Table 4]

Runners that were highly favored in previous race are strong performers
>Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in their previous race, we observe that runners that were backed as 2nd favorite or higher in their previous race exhibited strong performances. Runners that were backed as 6th favorite or lower in their previous race produced only one winner (Sadamu Patek in 2012, backed as 10th favorite in previous race) and one runner-up (Fifth Petal in 2011, backed as 6th favorite in previous race). [Table 5]

Check performance in Yasuda Kinen of same year
Over the last 10 years, runners that “finished 4th-10th in the Yasuda Kinen of the same year” entered the Top 2 of the Mile Championship in each year except 2011. If any of this year’s runners come with this kind of record, it would be a good idea to check them out. [Table 6]

Seek out the winner!
Last three Mile Championship winners triumphed in G3 race in last four outings
The last three Mile Championship winners won a G3 race within their four last outings. Another shared feature was that the G3 race they won was held in the spring season. [Table 7]

(Yasunori Asano)