Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1) - Data Analysis

Champion 2-year-old filly decider
Many of the winners of the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, a race positioned as the champion 2-year-old filly decider, have gone on to deliver strong performances in major races held the following spring. The race is closely watched as it gives important hints for later classics. Ahead of this intriguing event, let’s analyze the results over the last 10 years.

Runners coming from G2 or G3 race in previous outing enjoy strong Top 2 ratio
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we observe that runners that contested a "G2" or "G3" race in their previous outing had a Top 2 ratio of over 13%, while other runners had a Top 2 ratio under 10%. Runners that contested a "G2" race in their previous outing achieved a Top 3 ratio of 40.0%, so we should raise our expectations of runners most recently seen in higher grade races. In addition, runners that contested their "newcomer race" in their previous outing delivered the second highest Top 3 ratio. [Table 1]

Watch position when passing 4th corner in previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their position when passing the 4th corner in their previous race, we observe that runners that had passed the 4th corner in their previous race in "5th-9th position" enjoyed the highest success ratios. It is also worth noting that runners that had passed the 4th corner in their previous race in "2nd-4th position" vied for the top places in recent years. In the last five years (since 2013), runners that had passed the 4th corner in their previous race in "2nd-4th position" have produced nine Top 3 finishers, including four winners. In other words, it could be interesting to check runners' position when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. [Table 2]

Focus on runners that ran a newcomer race over 1,500m on turf
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the distance of their newcomer race, we find that all 10 winners had contested in "a turf 1,500m+ race" as their debut outing. There was a large difference in Top 2 and Top 3 ratios between runners that had debuted in "a turf 1,500m race," "a turf 1,600m race," or "a turf 1,800m race" on the one hand, and runners that had debuted in "a turf race of 1,400m or below" on the other. This means we should focus more on runners that debuted in "a turf 1,500m+ race" than those that ran a short-distance or dirt race. [Table 3]

Check the timing of newcomer & second race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the timing of their newcomer and second race, we find that runners that contested their "second race two or more months after their debut race" enjoyed the highest success ratios. The last two Hanshin Juvenile Fillies were won by Soul Stirring (2016; newcomer race in July, second race in October) and Lucky Lilac (2017; newcomer in August, second race in October). Accordingly, we should check the timing of the newcomer race and second race of this year's runners. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Finish in second race since debut important
Eight of the last 10 winners had finished "1st" in the second race since their debut. As for the remaining two, one had finished "2nd" in her second race and the other had only "1 career start." Meanwhile, runners that had finished "3rd or lower" in their second race produced zero winners. In other words, we should check the runners' performances in the second race since their debut. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)