Victoria Mile (G1) - Data Analysis

Spring queen decider for fillies and mares aged 4 and above
The Victoria Mile is a major spring race for fillies and mares aged 4 and above. In the five years from 2014, the race was successively won by runners backed as 5th favorite or lower. In 2015, the Top 3 comprised the runners backed as 5th, 12th, and 18th favorite, respectively, producing a massive Trifecta payout of 20,705,810 yen. We should therefore sufficiently consider the possibility that poorly favored horses can perform well again this year. To identify likely contenders, it is important to examine some historical trends in this race.  

Younger horses perform well
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that younger horses produced higher Top 3 ratios. Among horses aged 7 and above, 7-year-old Straight Girl took the crown in 2016, but she was the defending champion of the race that year and therefore may have to be regarded as an exception. [Table 1]

A trend in performance by “Win-odds”
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of win odds, we observe that runners with win odds of “3.9 or lower” produced three winners and two runners-up, a decent performance. In addition, runners with win odds of “10.0-19.9” notched four wins and achieved a high Top 3 ratio of 35.7%. Conversely, runners with win odds of “4.0-6.9” delivered much lower success ratios than those with win odds of “3.9 or lower,” while runners with win odds of “7.0-9.9” only produced one Top 3 finisher. [Table 2]

Check performance by previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we note that among runners that had contested a domestic G1 race last time out, Straight Girl was the only runner to finish in the Top 3 (third place in 2014, winner in 2015). Runners coming straight from a G1 race in Dubai have produced two winners (Vodka in 2009 and Buena Vista in 2010) and one runner-up (Buena Vista in 2011). The last runner to enter the Victoria Mile immediately after returning from Dubai was Denim and Ruby (7th) in 2014. Runners coming straight from the Hanshin Himba Stakes have produced the largest number of winners (4) and 11 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years. Looking at performances by runners in this group in terms of finish in the Hanshin Himba Stakes, we find that the nine Hanshin Himba Stakes winners that subsequently ran in the Victoria Mile produced zero Top 3 finishers. In other words, while the Hanshin Himba Stakes should be regarded as an important prep race for the Victoria Mile, runners that won that race fared poorly in the Victoria Mile, which is an interesting fact. [Table 3] [Table 4]

Watch finish in graded race within last four outings
In the Victoria Mile races held over the last 10 years, “runners that finished 4th-7th in a graded race within their last four outings” have often performed well and consistently occupied a spot in the Top 2. If runners with such experience enter the race this year, it would seem a good idea to keep an eye on them. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Focus on performance in third last race
One characteristic shared by winners over the last three years was that they “entered their third last race as 1st or 2nd favorite and won that race.” Although the Victoria Mile has been successively won by poorly favored horses in recent years, this is an interesting statistic to consider. [Table 6]

(Yasunori Asano)