Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1) - Data Analysis

Second fillies classic
The Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) is a 2,400m turf race held at Tokyo Racecourse. It is 800m longer than the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), the first fillies classic contested on turf over 1,600m at Hanshin Racecourse. Accordingly, aptitude to a distance of 2,400m is likely to be a key factor affecting performance. As we approach this pulsating fixture, let’s look for some trends in results over the last 10 years.

Check last-but-one race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their last-but-one (second to last) race, we find that runners that contested the Tulip Sho in their last-but-one race were the only group to produce multiple winners. This group also delivered 11 Top 3 finishers, resulting in a Top 3 ratio of over 30%. [Table 1]

Also watch finish in last-but-one race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in their last-but-one (second to last) race, we observe that the 20 Top 2 finishers and 28 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had finished in the Top 4 of their last-but-one race. In other words, we should sufficiently consider the possibility that runners that finished in the Top 4 of their last-but-one race will be chasing the top places again, regardless of their finish last time out. [Table 2]

Runners backed as 5th favorite last time out perform well
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in their previous race, we note that 19 of the 20 Top 2 finishers and 27 of the 30 Top 3 finishers were backed as 5th favorite or higher in their previous race. In addition, runners that were backed as race favorites in their last outing achieved a Top 3 ratio of over 40%. This suggests we should raise our expectations of runners that were highly favored in their previous race. [Table 3]

Runners with multiple victories over 1,600m turf races are strong performers
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of number of wins in 1,600m turf races, we find that runners with “3 wins or more” achieved a high Top 2 ratio of 41.7% and a Top 3 ratio of 50.0%, while runners with “2 wins” also delivered a Top 3 ratio of over 30%. Although runners with “1 win” or “0 wins” together occupied 16 (over half) of the 30 Top 3 finishers, their success ratios were not impressive. In other words, we should focus on runners that have already achieved two or more victories in 1,600m turf races [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Focus on performance in first race of the year
Looking at performances by the 11 winners over the last 10 years in terms of their first race of the year and finish in that race, we observe that 10 of the 11 winners had finished in the Top 2 of their first race of the year. In addition, nine of the 11 winners had contested an open-class race to start the year. This suggests we should focus on “runners that finished in the Top 2 in high-level competition” to kick off their three-year-old campaign. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)