Tenno Sho (Autumn) (G1) - Data Analysis

Autumn middle-distance champion decider that has delivered numerous memorable contests in the past
The Tenno Sho (Autumn) opens the autumn G1 season for 3yo+ runners. Which runner will emerge as the middle-distance champion in this race, which is the first of three successive G1 middle- to long-distance contests for the autumn season (to be followed by the Japan Cup in November and the Arima Kinen in December)? As we approach this pulsating fixture, let’s analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Check performance in recent graded races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in a recent non-G1 turf graded race within their last two outings, we note that in categories with 10 or more runners applicable, runners that had entered “G1 races in their last two outings” achieved the highest Top 3 ratio of 40.9%. Among runners that had contested a non-G1 turf graded race within their last two outings, those finishing “1st,” “2nd,” “3rd,” or “5th” in such a race had the highest success ratios. In other words, we should raise our expectations of runners that have entered G1 races in their last two outings or runners that have finished in top positions in a non-G1 turf grade race within their last two outings. [Table 1]

Focus on favoritism in recent G1 or G2 race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in a G1 or G2 turf race within their last three outings, we find that runners backed as “1st favorite” achieved the highest success ratios. In terms of Top 2 and Top 3 ratios, race favorites similarly emerged as the top performers, followed by runners backed as “2nd favorite.” In other words, we should not overlook runners that were highly favored in recent G1 or G2 races. [Table 2]

Runners that have not entered a race since September should not be overlooked
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, runners coming from the Takarazuka Kinen delivered six Top 2 finishers, those coming from the Sapporo Kinen three Top 2 finishers, and those coming from the Yasuda Kinen one Top 2 finisher. Of the 20 Top 2 finishers, 10 had contested their previous race in August or before. In addition, a total of 45 runners came from the three abovementioned races, which was lower than the 55 coming from the Mainichi Okan (an important warmup race), but the former group produced a higher number of Top 2 finishers than the latter. [Table 3]

Runners with numbers 13 and above tend to struggle
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of horse number, we find that runners with the numbers “1-4” and “5-8” produced four winners each. In addition, eight of the 10 winners entered the race with the numbers 8 or below, and the remaining two winners entered the race with the numbers “9-12.” Runners with the numbers “13-18” delivered zero winners and only one runner-up. Another interesting point is that runners with the numbers “1-4” produced eight Top 2 finishers, but zero third-place finishers. These could be considered useful statistics when planning bet formations. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!

Watch runners that have finished in the Top 2 as race favorite within their last three outings
Looking at recent performance by the last six winners since 2013, we note that four had experience of “winning a race in which they were backed as the race favorite,” and the remaining two had experience of “finishing as the runner-up of a race in which they were backed as the race favorite.” In other words, we should closely watch runners that have finished in the Top 2 of a recent race in which they were backed as the race favorite. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)