Copa Republica Argentina (G2) - Data Analysis

Graded handicap race that paves the way to major year-end races
The Copa Republica Argentina is a graded handicap race contested on turf over 2,500m at the Tokyo Racecourse, and many of its past winners have gone on to chase the top places in races such as the Japan Cup or Arima Kinen. Let’s now look for some trends in this race, which paves the way to the major races of the end of the year, based on results over the last 10 years.

Runners that contested a G1 race last time out are strong performers
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we find that runners that had contested a G1 race last time out achieved a Top 3 ratio of 40.0%. In addition, runners that had contested a G1 or G2 race last time out made up 12 (over half) of the 20 Top 2 finishers, suggesting we should focus on runners that contested a higher grade race last time out. However, runners that had contested a G3 or open-class stakes race last time out tended to struggle. Meanwhile, runners that had contested a 16 million yen-or-less class (now 3-win class) race last time out produced six Top 2 finishers, and achieved the second highest success ratios, behind the group that had contested a G1 race last time out. In other words, we should also not overlook runners that contested an allowance-class race last time out. [Table 1]

Check number of Top 3 finishes in recent races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the number of Top 3 finishes within their last three outings, we note that runners with “3” Top 3 finishes in such races achieved a Top 3 ratio of 50%, and runners with “2” Top 3 finishes a Top 3 ratio of 33.3%. Although the 42 runners falling in both these groups accounted for only about 25% of the total runners (166), they made up 16 (over half) of the 30 Top 3 finishers. This means we should raise our expectations of runners that have achieved several Top 3 finishes within their last three outings. [Table 2]

Focus on favoritism in recently contested non-G1 turf 2,400m+ race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in a non-G1 turf 2,400m+ race within their last three outings, we find that runners that had been backed as 3rd favorite or higher in such a race made up half of the Top 2 finishers. However, runners backed as “1st favorite” in such a race only produced four winners and runners backed as “2nd favorite” or “3rd favorite” zero winners. Meanwhile, runners that had “not entered such a race” delivered four winners, including Tosen Jordan (2010) and Asuka Kurichan (2013), two runners that had not contested a G1 race since their debut race and had no experience of contesting a turf 2,400m+ race. In addition, among the seven winners since 2012, four had contested a non-G1 turf 2,400m+ race within their last three outings as “1st favorite,” while the other three had “not entered such a race.” [Table 3]

Seek out the winner!
Top 4 finish in recent graded race is key
Looking at performances by the last 10 winners in major graded races within their last four outings, we find that all 10 winners finished in the Top 4 of such a race. This suggests we should again consider runners’ recent performance this year. [Table 4]

(Michio Kawano)