Victoria Mile (G1) - Data Analysis

Champion filly decider of spring season in which dark horses also warrant attention
In the 2020 Victoria Mile, race favorite Almond Eye (win odds of 1.4) secured a perfect victory, finishing four lengths ahead of runner-up Sound Chiara. However, runners backed as 5th favorite or lower have triumphed in the six consecutive years from 2014 to 2019. The Victoria Mile is essentially a race that is known for upset victories, as evidenced by the Trifecta payout of JPY20,705,810 in 2015, which marked a record high for JRA graded races. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Watch finish in G1 race since previous year
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 24 had experience of finishing in the Top 6 of “a JRA G1 race since the previous year.” Conversely, runners without such experience struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 7.6%. We should therefore start by checking runners’ finishes in major races held since the previous year. [Table 1]

In addition, among runners without experience of finishing in the Top 6 of “a JRA G1 race since the previous year,” those without experience of finishing in the Top 7 of “the Hanshin Himba Stakes in the same year” achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 3.6%. This suggests we should lower our expectations of runners that have not finished in the Top 6 of a major race in the previous year or the same year, and that have also failed to rise to the top in the Hanshin Himba Stakes in the same year. [Table 2]

Target runners that have previously shown strong performance in Victoria Mile
Looking at performances in terms of finish in “the Victoria Mile of the previous year,” we find that runners that had finished in the “Top 8” of that race achieved a Top 3 ratio of 31.4%, a relatively strong outcome. In addition, nine of the 11 runners that had finished in the Top 3 of that race were backed by win odds of 10 or higher. In other words, among runners that have performed poorly recently, we should focus on runners that have finished in the Top 8 of “the Victoria Mile of the previous year.” [Table 3]

Strong performance by runners with shorter careers in recent years
Of the 12 Top 3 finishers in the last four years, nine had “13 or fewer” career starts. Conversely, runners with “14 or more” career starts struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 8.6%. Compared with the races up to 2016, runners with shorter careers have had an edge in recent years. [Table 4]

In addition, the three Top 3 finishers with “14 or more” career starts all had experience of finishing in the Top 5 of “the Hanshin Himba Stakes in the same year.” We should therefore lower our expectations of runners with “14 or more” career starts” except those that have performed strongly in the Hanshin Himba Stakes, which is a major prep race for the Victoria Mile. [Table 5]

Runners that delivered strong performance last time out in principle fare well
Of the 12 Top 3 finishers in the last four years, 10 had finished 1st in their previous race or 2nd or lower with a time difference of 0.4s or less with the winner in that race. Meanwhile, runners that had finished 2nd or lower in their previous race with a time difference of 0.5s or higher with the winner of that race, struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 8.0%. This suggests we should lower our expectations of runners coming straight from a major defeat. [Table 6]

Runners coming from small-field races in previous race perform poorly
All 12 Top 3 finishers in the last four years had entered a race contested by “13 or more” runners last time out. In other words, runners that have entered a race contested by “12 or fewer” runners last time out are unlikely to chase the top places. [Table 8]

Seek out the winner!
Favoritism in previous race is a key factor
The last 10 winners had all been backed as 5th favorite or higher in their previous race. When comparing the lead-up races of this year’s runners, we should check their favoritism in the previous race. Other shared features among the last 10 winners were that they had experience of finishing in the Top 5 of a “JRA G1 race since the previous year,” and had entered a race contested by “13 or more” runners in their previous race. We should therefore also focus on the trends outlined in Table 1 and Table 8. [Table 9]

(Masaya Ibuki)