Victoria Mile (G1) - Data Analysis

Spring queen decider for older filies and mares
The Victoria Mile is a 1,600 meters G1 race for older fillies and mares that was established in 2006. Race favorites have suffered six consecutive defeats in the race since 2014, resulting in a string of upset victories. The 2015 race stood out in particular with a Trifecta payout of JPY20 million. However, the last two races were won by the race favorites, so the question is whether this trend will continue this year, or whether a poorly favored runner will score a surprise victory. Let’s now look for some trends in this race based on the data for the last 10 years.

Runners with win odds in the 10.0-19.9 range look appealing from a betting standpoint
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of win odds, we find that runners with win odds in the 10.0-19.9 range delivered solid performance. Runners in this group even secured four consecutive victories: Straight Girl in 2015 (win odds of 14.1), Straight Girl in 2016 (17.7), Admire Lead in 2017 (13.5), and Jour Polaire in 2018 (19.4). As runners with win odds in the 10.0-19.9 range only failed to enter the Top 3 once in the last 10 years, we should regard them as leading contenders. [Table 1]

Runners that suffered a major defeat in their previous race can still rise to the top
Over the last 10 years, runners that had triumphed in their previous race delivered lackluster performance. In fact, this group of 40 runners produced not a single winner. Since the highly favored runners were often unable to live up to expectations (examples include Smart Layer in 2014 [1st favorite, 8th place], Nuovo Record in 2015 [1st favorite, 6th place], and Mikki Queen in 2017 [1st favorite, 7th place]), we should be wary of runners that have secured the victory in their previous race. Put differently, runners that have not performed well in their previous race can still rise to the top. From 2013 to 2016, the race was won for four consecutive years by runners that had been beaten to 6th or lower in their previous race. [Table 2]

High success ratios for runners coming from the Nakayama Himba Stakes
All Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years came from one of the eight races shown in the table below. Among the main lead-up races, runners coming from the Hanshin Himba Stakes delivered the largest number of Top 3 finishers, runners coming from the Nakayama Himba Stakes achieved the highest success ratios, and runners coming from the Fukushima Himba Stakes produced zero winners. Furthermore, runners coming from the Osaka Hai, while fewer in number, have a high probability of finishing in the Top 3. If any of this year’s runners are coming from the Osaka Hai, we should focus on them. [Table 3]

Runners coming in with a lower carrying weight look appealing
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of changes in carrying weight, we find that runners coming in with a lower carrying weight than in their previous race achieved a high Top 3 ratio of 42.9%. In 2016, runners in this group occupied the entire Top 3 (Straight Girl 1st, Mikki Queen 2nd, and Shonan Pandora 3rd; carrying weight was down from 56kg to 55kg for each runner). In other words, if any runners come in with a lower carrying weight than in their previous race, we should pick them. [Table 4]

Runners with shorter careers have fared well in recent years
The last five winners all had 15 or fewer career starts. Runners in this group also occupied the entire Top 3 in 2021, so runners with fewer career starts tend to perform well in this race. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Runners that performed well in a mile G1 race in the previous year and were highly favored in their previous race have the edge
Among the last 10 winners, nine had experience of finishing in the Top 5 of a 1,600m G1 race in the previous year. In particular, we should closely watch runners that have finished in the Top 5 of the Victoria Mile, the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), or the Yasuda Kinen in the previous year. In addition, the last 10 winners had all been backed as 5th favorite or higher in their previous race. This suggests we should also check the favoritism of runners in their previous race. [Table 6]

(Yodohito Himezono)