Champions Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Year-end JRA dirt champion decider
The Champions Cup was established under the name Japan Cup Dirt in 2000, but has changed its course and distance over the years. In 2014, it was renamed Champions Cup and moved to Chukyo Racecourse, where it has since been held as an 1,800m dirt race. Being one of only two JRA dirt G1 races, the Champions Cup attracts the best dirt horses that have all set their sights on this race. Let’s now look for some trends in the race based on results in the eight years since 2014, when the race was moved to Chukyo Racecourse.

Winners come from four races
The last eight winners had all contested the JBC Classic, the Mile Championship Nambu Hai, the JBC Ladies’ Classic, or the Nihon TV Hai in their previous race. If we expand our analysis to include all Top 3 finishers, we should similarly consider runners coming from the Miyako Stakes or Musashino Stakes (two prep races), in addition to the races mentioned above. [Table 1]

Winners of the JBC Classic struggle
As shown in Table 1, the JBC Classic has proved to be the most important prep race for the Champions Cup. However, winners of this race have historically struggled in the Champions Cup with performance of [0-1-0-6], and have also often failed to live up to expectations as race favorites. In other words, we should not place our confidence in runners that have only achieved a victory in the JBC Classic last time out. [Table 2]

Focus on third- and fourth-placed runners in the JBC Classic
Looking at performances by runners in terms of their finish in the JBC Classic, we find many examples of strong performances by runners that had finished 3rd or 4th in the JBC Classic last time out. In 2021, T O Keynes and Chuwa Wizard respectively finished 1st and 2nd in the Champions Cup after having secured 4th and 3rd place in the JBC Classic in their previous race. Other examples of runners that have bounced back from 3rd or 4th place in the JBC Classic to win the Champions Cup include Chuwa Wizard in 2020 (3rd in JBC Classic), Sound True in 2016 (3rd in JBC Classic), and Hokko Tarumae in 2014 (4th in JBC Classic). In addition, no runners have advanced from a 5th or lower finish in the JBC Classic to the top places in the Champions Cup over the last eight years. [Table 3]

Check the position in the previous race
Runners that occupy the back of the pack during the Champions Cup rarely advance to the top positions, so we should focus on runners that tend to maintain a favorable position throughout the race. While it is difficult to predict the position of runners in the race, we can use the position at the 4th corner in their previous race as a reference point. The table below shows a significant gap in success ratios between runners that had been positioned 6th or higher when passing the 4th corner in their previous race and those that had been positioned 7th or lower. This suggests we should target runners that were positioned 6th or higher when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Runners that have won a G1 or top-level dirt race within the last year dominate
Seven of the last eight winners (excluding Sambista) had won a G1 or top-level dirt race within the last year. Sambista, the only runner to diverge from this trend, had won the JBC Ladies’ Classic (a top-level dirt race) roughly 13 months earlier. Over the last eight years, race favorites have only achieved two victories in the Champions Cup, making this a difficult G1 race to call. For this reason, we should focus on runners that have won a G1 or top-level dirt race within the last year, regardless of their favoritism. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)