Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Sprint champion decider of the spring season
The Takamatsunomiya Kinen is a sprint race that was upgraded to G1 status in 1996, and has been held at the end of March at Chukyo Racecourse since 2000. While it was at one point perceived as a G1 contest in which highly favored runners have the edge, the race has produced upsets in the six years since 2017, with race favorites consistently failing to grab the top spot and only finishing in 2nd place once. Will this year bring another upset, or will a highly favored runner pull off the victory? To answer this question, we have analyzed some trends in this race over the last 10 years.

Focus on runners coming from major prep races
Many of the Top 3 finishers in the Takamatsunomiya Kinen over the last 10 years had previously contested the Silk Road Stakes, Hankyu Hai, Yukan Fuji Sho Ocean Stakes, or a race in Hong Kong. While runners coming from the Yukan Fuji Sho Ocean Stakes had a relatively low Top 3 ratio, poorly favored runners in this group have on many occasions delivered strong performance and finished in the Top 3, with examples including 2022 winner Naran Huleg (8th favorite), 2022 third-place finisher Kir Lord (17th favorite), 2019 third-place finisher Shonan Anthem (17th favorite), and 2018 third-place finisher Nac Venus (10th favorite). [Table 1]

Top 2 finish last time out appears to be a good selection criterion
Looking at performances by finish in the previous race, we find that runners with a Top 2 finish last time out achieved high success ratios. Examples include 2022 winner Naran Huleg (8th favorite; previous race was Yukan Fuji Sho Ocean Stakes, finished 2nd), 2018 third-place finisher Nac Venus (10th favorite; previous race was Yukan Fuji Sho Ocean Stakes, finished 2nd), and 2014 runner-up Snow Dragon (8th favorite; previous race was Yukan Fuji Sho Ocean Stakes, finished 2nd). We should therefore also keep in mind that dark horses have frequently performed well in this race. [Table 2]

Take note of favoritism in previous race
Looking at performances by favoritism in the previous race, we observe that runners that had been backed as 4th favorite or higher last time out achieved high success ratios. Last year’s winner Naran Huleg (8th favorite) had been backed as 4th favorite in his previous race (Yukan Fuji Sho Ocean Stakes), and 2020 winner Mozu Superflare (9th favorite) had been backed as 2nd favorite in her previous race (Silk Road Stakes). Combining this with the data presented in the two previous paragraphs, we conclude that we should focus on runners that have finished in the Top 2 of, and were backed as 4th favorite or higher in, the Silk Road Stakes, Hankyu Hai, or Yukan Fuji Sho Ocean Stakes, which are the major prep races for the Takamatsunomiya Kinen. [Table 3]

Watch horses aged 6 or below
Looking at performances by age, we find more or less similar Top 3 ratios in the 20-24% range for 4-year-olds, 5-year-olds, and 6-year-olds, but a significantly lower Top 3 ratio for runners aged 7 or above. The only runner aged 7 or above to win the Takamatsunomiya Kinen was Hong Kong-trained Aerovelocity in 2015. In 2022, 7-year-old Kir Lord (17th favorite) delivered an upset by finishing 3rd, but this should be regarded as a rare occurrence. We should therefore focus our attention on runners aged 4 to 6. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Top 2 finish in G2 or higher-grade race in the last six months is preferable
Eight of the last 10 winners had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of a turf G1 or G2 race contested over a distance of 1,400m or less since September of the previous year. Although 2022 winner Naran Huleg was an exception, he had delivered stable performance, finishing consistently in the Top 3 of open-class or G3 races since October of the previous year, which earned him a certain reputation. We should therefore narrow down our search for potential winners by comparing runners’ performance in the six months leading up to the Takamatsunomiya Kinen. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)