Victoria Mile (G1) - Data Analysis

Spring queen decider that has been won by long line of era-defining fillies/mares
The Victoria Mile is a race in which older fillies/mares battle for the title of spring queen. Notable past winners have included Vodka (the Tokyo Yushun [Japanese Derby] winner), Almond Eye (nine wins in G1 turf races), and Gran Alegria (recipient of the JRA Award for Best Sprinter or Miler in two consecutive years), which have all had stellar careers. What kind of runner will join the ranks of these star horses this year? Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Watch dark horses
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that runners backed as 10th favorite or lower have produced seven Top 3 finishers. In 2015, the 2nd and 3rd places in the race were secured by the runners backed as 12th and 18th favorite, respectively, resulting in a Trifecta payout of 20,000,000 yen. While race favorites have triumphed three times over the last 10 years, the race rarely plays out as a battle between fancied runners. In 2013 and 2021, for example, the runners-up were backed as 12th and 10th favorite, respectively. When making our predictions, we should keep in mind that dark horses may once again rise to the top. [Table 1]

Strong performance by runners coming from G1 race in recent years
The 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years all came from a JRA graded race, with higher-grade races translating into stronger success ratios. Runners that had contested a G1 race last time out have performed notably well in recent years, producing three consecutive winners: Almond Eye in 2020, Gran Alegria in 2021, and Sodashi in 2022. In addition, runners coming from a G2 race delivered the highest number of Top 3 finishers (15). Within this group, 12 runners had contested the Hanshin Himba Stakes in their previous race. That said, we should remember that runners coming from a victory in the Hanshin Himba Stakes struggled with performance of [0-1-0-9]. [Table 2]

Previous success in mile-long G1 races speaks volumes
As its name suggests, the Victoria Mile is contested on a turf course over a distance of 1,600m. Not surprisingly, therefore, experience in mile-long races appears to be a key factor. Nine of the 10 previous winners had finished within the Top 5 of a JRA G1 1,600m turf race held in the previous year. Runners that had won such a race delivered performance of [4-1-1-4], and achieved a Win ratio of 40%. Some of these triumphed in the Victoria Mile despite poor expectations, such as Verxina in 2014 (11th favorite) and Straight Girl in 2016 (7th favorite). This suggests we should focus on runners with the aforementioned record. [Table 3]

Check record at Tokyo Racecourse
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 21 had experience of finishing within the Top 3 of a graded turf race held at Tokyo Racecourse. Runners without such experience produced only one winner over the last 10 years.
When selecting win contenders, we should focus especially on the record at Tokyo Racecourse. Incidentally, the last two winners had won a graded turf race run over a distance of 1,600m at Tokyo Racecourse, and runners with such experience achieved excellent performance of [5-3-1-14] (Top 3 ratio of 39.1%). [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Finish and favoritism in previous race are key factors
In the paragraph above Table 2, we pointed out that runners coming from a victory in the Hanshin Himba Stakes delivered lackluster performance. In fact, runners that had won their previous race struggled across the board with performance of [0-3-0-38]. The last 10 winners had all been beaten in their previous race, with 2014 winner Verxina and 2015 winner Straight Girl having suffered major defeats (10th or lower). However, all 10 winners had been highly favored in their previous race (5th favorite or higher). We should also pay attention to the grade of the previous race, finish in the previous race, and favoritism in the previous race. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)