Sprinters Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Sprint champion decider of the autumn season
The Sprinters Stakes kicks off the G1 autumn season. It attracts various types of runners (including runners that competed in the Summer Sprint Series and those that took a break over the summer), who will vie for the title of sprint champion in this 1,200m turf race held at Nakayama Racecourse. Let’s now look for some trends in this race based on data for the last 10 years, including 2014, when the Sprinters Stakes was held at Niigata Racecourse.

Runners coming straight from spring G1 races should not be overlooked
Runners coming from the Centaur Stakes, a major prep race for the Sprinters Stakes, have produced five winners over the last 10 years. In addition, those coming straight from spring G1 races have achieved high success ratios. Especially worthy of note are runners that had suffered a major defeat in a mile-long G1 race at Tokyo Racecourse last time out, but bounced back and delivered strong performance in this race. Examples include 2022 third-place finisher Naran Huleg (5th favorite) having finished 9th in the Yasuda Kinen, 2017 runner-up Let’s Go Donki (5th favorite) having finished 11th in the Victoria Mile, and 2015 runner-up Sakura Gospel (11th favorite) having finished 17th in the Yasuda Kinen. We should pay attention to runners that fit this pattern. [Table 1]

Focus on runners that either won or finished without any time difference with the winner in their previous race
Looking at performances over the last 10 years in terms of finish in the previous race, we note that the highest success ratios belonged to runners that had either won or finished without any time difference with the winner in their previous race While there have also been many strong showings by runners that had finished their previous race with a time difference of 0.1s or more with the winner, the low success ratios for runners in this group are a concern. It would therefore be safer to focus on runners that have triumphed in their previous race or finished that race without any time difference with the winner. [Table 2]

Runners with numbers 11 and above struggle somewhat
Looking at performances by horse number over the last nine races held at Nakayama Racecourse, we observe that runners with the numbers 11-16 achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 7.4%, while runners with the numbers 1-5 and 6-10 both had Top 3 ratios of around 25%. Moreover, three of the four Top 3 finishers with the numbers 11-16 were highly favored (2nd or 3rd favorite), which suggests that dark horses are extremely unlikely to chase the top places. Incidentally, last year’s 14th-place finisher Meikei Yell, who was unable to live up to her 1st favorite status, also entered the race with the number 13. In other words, we should slightly lower our expectations of runners starting in the outer brackets. [Table 3]

Focus on descendants of Mr. Prospector
Looking at results by sires over the last nine races held at Nakayama Racecourse, we find that sires of the Mr. Prospector line were the standout performers, with descendants of Swept Overboard, Admire Moon, King Kamehameha, and Raven's Pass collectively producing five winners. Especially worthy of note in the Mr. Prospector line was Forty Niner, whose descendants delivered performance of [3-2-2-9] (Top 3 ratio of 43.8%), with nearly half of the runners in this group finishing in the Top 3. If any runners this year match this profile, we should take them into consideration. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Successive victories by runners with experience of winning a mile-long graded race at ages 2 or 3
The last four winners all had experience of winning a mile-long graded race at the ages of 2 or 3. This suggests that runners with the stamina for mile-long races have a decent chance of winning. In addition, three of the four winners had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of a 1,600m+ G1 race at the ages of 2 or 3. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)