Shuka Sho (G1) - Data Analysis

Final leg of the fillies’ Triple Crown to be held at Kyoto Racecourse for the first time in three years
Among the last 10 winners of the Shuka Sho, 2018 winner Almond eye and 2020 winner Daring Tact swept all three fillies’ Triple Crown races, while 2014 winner Shonan Pandora and 2016 winner Vivlos did not enter the first two Classic races, namely the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) and the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks). This year’s final leg of the fillies’ Triple Crown will be held at Kyoto Racecourse for the first time in three years. Will the victory go to a runner that has performed well in the previous Classic races, or to a runner that has only now gained the strength to enter a race of this caliber? Let’s now analyze some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years, including the 2021 and 2022 races held at Hanshin Racecourse.

Little room for a dark horse to rise to the top
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that the winners were all backed as 4th favorite or higher, while nine of the 10 runners-up were backed as 5th favorite or higher. Meanwhile, half (five) of the third-place finishers were backed as 8th favorite or lower, which suggests we cannot entirely rule out the possibility of a dark horse chasing the top places. However, it seems appropriate to regard favored runners as the top contenders. [Table 1]

Check number of wins in JRA races
As favorite runners tend to fare well in this race, it follows that runners’ performance is tied to their records, with stronger past achievements translating into better performance. This is evidenced by the fact that half of the winners over the last 10 years had triumphed in four or more JRA races. Runners with four or more wins also enjoyed the highest success ratios, followed by runners with three wins. Win and Top 2 ratios trend down as the number of previous wins declines, and runners with only one previous victory have produced zero winners since the very first race. [Table 2]

Strong performance by runners coming from the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and the Shion Stakes (Shuka Sho Trial)
Runners coming straight from the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) have achieved notable performance in recent years, notching four consecutive wins from 2018 to 2021. While the runners in this group were unable to extend their win streak last year, they still finished in 2nd and 3rd place. If we limit our analysis to the last five years, runners coming straight from a Top 3 finish in the Japanese Oaks achieved performance of [4-1-1-3] (Top 3 ratio of 66.7%), and enjoyed extremely high success ratios. Meanwhile, 2022 winner Stunning Rose had previously contested the Shion Stakes (Shuka Sho Trial). Runners coming from the Shion Stakes have emerged as strong contenders since that race became a Grade 3 in 2016, producing seven Top 2 finishers, including three winners. In contrast, runners coming from the Kansai Telecasting Corp. Sho Rose Stakes (Shuka Sho Trial) delivered their last winner in 2015, and have not finished in the Top 2 over the last five years. [Table 3]

Closing speed is a decisive factor
Winners from 2013 to 2020, when the Shuka Sho was held at Kyoto Racecourse, all rallied from the middle or back of the field to pull off the victory. For the eight races held at Kyoto Racecourse, we note that 17 of the 24 Top 3 finishers had been ranked 3rd or higher in terms of the estimated time over the final three furlongs in their previous race. This group of runners also included five runners backed by favoritism of 8th or lower, including 2020 runner-up Magic Castle, who was backed as 10th favorite. In other words, we should not overlook runners that have achieved impressive closing speeds in the past, even if they are poorly favored. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Watch standouts in the Japanese Oaks
The recent six consecutive winners had all finished in the Top 4 of the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), and achieved performance of [8-3-2-10] (Win ratio of 34.8%) over the last 10 years. Another two victories were secured by runners that had not entered the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) or Japanese Oaks. Meanwhile, we should keep in mind that runners that had contested the Japanese Oaks but were defeated to 5th or lower in that race, delivered performance of [0-4-4-60], and produced zero winners. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)