Champions Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Ultimate contest in dirt racing brings together top active runners
Of the nine winners in the race since it was renamed Champions Cup, eight had won a G1 or top-level dirt race since the previous year, with six runners in this group having dominated such a race in the same year. Meanwhile, 2022 winner Jun Light Bolt had only entered three dirt races in his career, and finished sixth in his last G1 race, the 2019 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, roughly three years ago. We should therefore pay attention not only to runners that have already won a major race, but also to new names that have come this far in their career and now have their sights set on the title. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years, including 2013, when the race was held on the 1,800m dirt course of Hanshin Racecourse under the name Japan Cup Dirt.

Four-year-olds struggle somewhat
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that three-year-olds, five-year-olds, and six-year-olds all achieved a Top 3 ratio of over 20%. However, four-year-olds had a Top 3 ratio of only 11.1%. Success ratios that are slightly lackluster are therefore not only a concern for seven-year-olds and eight-year-olds or older runners, but also for four-year-olds. [Table 1]

Favoritism in previous race is a key factor
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 had contested a domestic race in their previous race and had been backed as 5th favorite or higher in that race. Conversely, runners that had been backed as 6th favorite or lower last time out struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 2.4%. When comparing the most recent race of the runners, we should concentrate on favoritism. [Table 2]

Expect little from runners starting in the far outer brackets
All 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years entered the race with the numbers 1-13. Meanwhile, horses with the numbers 14-16 were all beaten to 4th or lower. Many runners in this group also proved unable to live up to strong favoritism, including Chrysoberyl (horse number 15) who was beaten to 4th in 2020 despite being backed by win odds of 1.4. In other words, we should also be skeptical of runners starting in the outer brackets this year. [Table 3]

Position in previous race is decisive factor
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 27 had contested a domestic race in their previous race and had been positioned 7th or higher when passing the 4th corner in that race. Conversely, runners that had been positioned 8th or lower struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 6.0%. We should therefore be wary of runners that occupied the middle or back of the pack in their previous race. [Table 4]

Grade of the previous race and performance since the turn of the year have been important indicators in recent years
Of the 21 Top 3 finishers in the last seven years, 14 had contested a domestic G1, G2, or top-level dirt race in their previous race. Runners in this group achieved a decent Top 3 ratio of 31.8%. This appears to suggest we can place considerable trust in runners that have contested high-grade dirt races in their previous race. [Table 5]

In addition, among the seven Top 3 finishers that had contested a race other than “a domestic G1, G2, or top-level dirt race” in their previous race, five had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of the February Stakes or an 1,800m+ graded dirt race held at Chukyo Racecourse in the same year. This suggests we should raise our expectations of runners that have performed reasonably well in the February Stakes or a middle-distance graded dirt race held at Chukyo Racecourse this year, regardless of the grade of their previous race. [Table 6]

Seek out the winner!
Strong performers last time out have the edge
The last nine winners had all finished 5th or higher in their previous race. In other words, we need to discount runners coming straight from a major defeat. Other shared features among the last nine winners were that they were aged 6 or below, that they had been backed as 5th favorite or higher in their previous race, and that they had entered the race with a number lower than 12. This suggests we should also take into consideration the trends shown in Tables 1, 2, and 3. [Table 7]

(Masaya Ibuki)