February Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

First JRA G1 race of 2024 is dirt champion decider
Last year’s winner Lemon Pop also triumphed in the Champions Cup in the fall season, dominating the dirt racing circuit. Over the last 10 years, race favorites in the February Stakes have produced five winners, including Lemon Pop, and runners backed as 2nd favorite three winners. This suggests fancied runners perform well in the race. Although the February Stakes generally unfolds as expected, it has also brought some upsets. For example, Copano Rickey and K T Brave finished 1st and 2nd in 2014 and 2020, respectively, despite both being backed as 16th favorite. Let’s now analyze the results over the last 10 years for this first G1 race of 2024.

Focus on runners that have won a JRA graded dirt race
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in this dirt champion decider over the last 10 years, 26 had won a JRA graded dirt race. In particular, runners that had won a graded dirt race in Tokyo delivered a strong showing, with performance of [8-6-6-35] and a Top 3 ratio of 36.4%. In addition, runners in this group that were backed as 2nd favorite or higher in the February Stakes delivered performance of [7-3-2-3] and achieved a Top 3 ratio of 80.0%, with nearly half securing the victory. [Table 1]

Strong performance by heavy horses with a weight of 500kg or more
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of body weight, we find that 22 of the 30 Top 3 finishers weighed in at 500kg or more. Copano Rickey and K T Brave, who finished in the Top 2 in 2014 and 2020, respectively, weighted in at 530kg and 524kg. Six of the seven Top 3 finishers backed as 6th favorite or lower, including the two aforementioned runners, weighed in at 500kg or more. [Table 2]

Highly favored runners aged 5 or below are more reliable
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that four-year-olds and five-year-olds have each produced four winners. Horses aged five or below that were backed as 2nd favorite or higher delivered performance of [7-3-1-1], with a Top 3 ratio of over 90%. Horses aged 7 or above produced zero winners, performing poorly in terms of victories. However, K T Brave finished in 2nd place in 2020 as a seven-year-old, while eight-year-olds backed as 8th favorite or lower secured 2nd and 3rd place in 2021. We should therefore keep in mind that poorly favored runners aged seven and above have delivered upsets in recent years. [Table 3]

Check runners from Mr. Prospector-line
Runners that trace their lineage back to Mr. Prospector have performed well in recent years, securing five victories in the six years since 2018. Within this group, 2020 winner Mozu Ascot, 2021 and 2022 winner Cafe Pharoah, and 2023 winner Lemon Pop were all overseas horses foaled in the US. In addition, runners that trace their lineage back to Sunday Silence have similarly produced three winners over the last 10 years. However, they have not secured a victory since 2018, turning in performance of [0-3-1-27]. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Trend in winners’ previous race
Looking at the last 10 winners, we observe that runners coming from a victory in the Negishi Stakes produced the highest number of winners (four), followed by those coming from a win in the Tokai Stakes (two). In other words, winners of major prep races have often achieved consecutive victories. Meanwhile, three of the remaining four winners bounced back from a 6th or lower finish in the Champions Cup. All winners from 2015 have fallen into one of the aforementioned three patterns, so we can narrow down our search for win contenders by analyzing runners’ previous race and finish in that race. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)