Champions Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Dirt champion decider of the autumn season
Among recent winners of the Champions Cup, 2017 winner Gold Dream and 2023 winner Lemon Pop had both triumphed in the February Stakes held in February of the same year, claiming the title of spring and autumn dirt G1 champion. Before heading into the autumn dirt champion decider, let’s now analyze the data for the last 10 years.

Poorly favored runners should not be overlooked
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 15 were backed as 3rd favorite or higher. However, poorly favored runners have also often chased the top places in this race, with 12 runners backed as 6th favorite or lower finishing in the Top 3. Meanwhile, race favorites achieved a Top 2 ratio of 60.0%, which is not low by any measure. In other words, while there is no evidence that highly favored runners fare poorly in the race, we should also consider the possibility of poorly favored runners rising to the top. [Table 1]

Watch previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that eight of the 10 winners and 18 of the 30 Top 3 finishers came from a G1/Jpn1 race. While comparisons with runners coming from a G2/Jpn2 race, open-class race, or overseas race are difficult due the low overall numbers of such runners, the group coming from a G1/Jpn1 race outperformed runners coming from a G3/Jpn3 race in terms of the number of Top 3 finishers and success ratios. When comparing the previous race of the runners, we should therefore raise our expectations of runners coming from a G1/Jpn1 race. [Table 2]

In recent years, runners with a win in their last three races have had the edge
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 13 had no experience of winning one of their last three races. This suggests we should not overlook runners that have not secured victories in recent races. However, the six winners since 2018 had all notched a win in their last three races, and five of the runners in this group had secured two or more victories. [Table 3]

Runners starting in the middle to inner brackets have a slight advantage
Over the last 10 years, the race has consistently been held with a field of 15 or more runners. Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their horse number, we note that seven of the 10 winners started with the numbers 1-8. In addition, runners with the numbers 1-4 produced the highest number of Top 3 finishers (11). Runners that entered the race with the numbers 9-12 also produced eight Top 3 finishers. In other words, while it is not the case that all Top 3 finishers have started in the inner brackets, we should focus our attention on runners starting in the middle to inner brackets. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check win record in the last three races
Five of the last six winners had won a G1/Jpn1 race in their last three races. The remaining winner had not won a G1/Jpn1 race but had entered the Champions Cup following two consecutive victories. When narrowing down our search for win contenders, we should therefore focus on runners that have won a G1/Jpn1 race in their last three races, or runners coming from consecutive victories. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)