Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) (G1) - Data Analysis

First leg of the classic Triple Crown
Last year, undefeated Justin Milano claimed the spotlight in the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), setting the fastest winning time for the course at the time. Among the Triple Crown races, which also include the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) and Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger), the Satsuki Sho is known as the race where “speed is the ultimate factor.” Which runners are likely to find success in this contest? Let’s find out based on the results over the last 10 years.

Runners backed by high favoritism have dominated in recent years
In 2017, Al Ain triumphed while backed as 9th favorite and Danburite finished 3rd while backed as 12th favorite, resulting in a substantial Trifecta payment of 1,000,000 yen. One year later, in 2018, another upset triggered a Trifecta payment of over 370,000 yen. However, this marked the last year in which runners backed as 1st-3rd favorite were all beaten to 4th or lower, and in which a runner backed as 6th favorite or lower won the race. Although the performance of race favorites has been somewhat underwhelming, highly favored runners have generally done well in recent years. [Table 1]

Runners with a prior win in a graded race fare well
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 25 had previously notched a win in a JRA graded race. Although two of the Top 3 finishers secured their first victory in the Satsuki Sho (Duramente in 2015, and Epoca d’Oro in 2018), these two runners had previously secured a 2nd-place finish in a JRA graded race. In other words, we should avoid picking runners without a previous Top 2 finish in a graded race as win contenders. [Table 2]

Watch runners coming from a victory in a graded race
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 21 had won their previous race. Within this group, runners coming from a victory in a graded race achieved performance of [7-7-6-31] (Top 3 ratio of 39.2%). This included dark horses such as Dee Majesty, who won the 2016 race while backed as 8th favorite, and the aforementioned Al Ain. In other words, runners that meet this condition should not be overlooked, even if they are backed by low favoritism. Conversely, runners that had been beaten to 3rd or lower in their previous race achieved a lackluster Top 3 ratio of 5.0%, and should therefore be discounted. [Table 3]

Consistent performance also a key factor
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 16 had never been beaten to 3rd or lower. Undefeated runners, in particular, deserve attention as they achieved performance of [5-3-3-14] (Top 3 ratio of 44.0%), with nearly half finishing in the Top 3. Since 2019, runners in this group have also delivered five of the six winners, so their recent success is a pattern that should not be ignored. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Characteristics apparent in the previous race
As shown in Table 3, the last 10 winners had all secured a Top 2 finish in their previous race. In addition, all winners had contested a graded race last time out. Surprisingly, runners coming from the Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho Deep Impact Kinen (Japanese 2000 Guineas Trial), which is contested on the same course and over the same distance as the Satsuki Sho produced zero winners. Meanwhile, runners coming from the Spring Stakes (Japanese 2000 Guineas Trial) only delivered one winner (Epoca d’Oro). In other words, a large number of winners have come from a Top 2 finish in a non-trial graded race. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)