Victoria Mile (G1) - Data Analysis

Ultimate mile showdown for fillies and mares
Held as a 1,600m G1 turf race at Tokyo Racecourse, the Victoria Mile is the race that decides the mile queen. While it has been won by runners with an established record in some years, many runners have also achieved their first G1 victory in the Victoria Mile, making it a fun race to predict. Let’s now look for some trends based on results over the last 10 years.

Poorly favored runners cannot be ruled out
Runners backed as 6th favorite or lower have produced four winners over the last 10 years. Those backed as 4th and 5th favorite have also achieved high Top 3 ratios, so the Victoria Mile should be regarded as a G1 race in which any runner, regardless of popularity, has a chance to rise to the top. Incidentally, last year, Ten Happy Rose surprised racing fans by notching the win backed as 14th favorite with win odds of 208.6. [Table 1]

Runners fresh off a win tend to struggle
Looking at performances over the last 10 years in terms of finish in the previous race, we find that runners that had won their previous race achieved zero victories and had low success ratios. Runners that had finished 2nd or lower in their previous race put on the strongest showing. One striking point is that runners that had been beaten to 6th or lower in their previous race delivered six winners. This suggests that it would be unwise to make picks based solely on the finish in the previous race. [Table 2]

Focus on runners starting in Brackets 2 and 3
Over the last 10 years, runners starting in Bracket 3 have produced five winners and those starting in Bracket 2 two winners. Runners in both groups also achieved excellent Top 3 ratios, so we should pay close attention to them. Conversely, runners starting in Brackets 6-8 had low success ratios, so runners starting in the outer brackets appear to be at a slight disadvantage. [Table 3]

Battle between runners coming from the Hanshin Himba Stakes or a G1 race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we observe that runners coming from the Hanshin Himba Stakes delivered the highest number of Top 3 finishers, and that those coming from a G1 race achieved high success ratios. We should therefore focus our attention on such runners. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Runners that have already won a mile-long G1 race are strong contenders
While this is a race in which it is difficult to narrow down win contenders in some years, four of the five recent winners had experience of winning a mile G1 turf race. We should therefore keep an eye on runners that have already secured a victory in a mile G1 race. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)