Takarazuka Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Final race of the spring G1 series
The final race of the spring G1 season is the fan-voted Takarazuka Kinen, which brings together a high-caliber field of middle- and long-distance runners. Let’s now look for some trends based on results over the last 10 years, including the race held at Kyoto Racecourse in 2024.

Worth considering runners with varying levels of favoritism
Race favorites over the last 10 years have achieved a Win ratio of 20% and a Top 2 ratio of 40%, which is not particularly impressive. Given that the reliability of runners backed as 3rd favorite or higher has been similar, there is no reason to place too much emphasis on the race favorite. Meanwhile, dark horses backed as 6th favorite or lower have often finished in the Top 3, so an unexpected contender could be an exciting option. [Table 1]

Youthful 4-year-olds versus seasoned 5-year-olds
Over the last 10 years, 5-year-olds have produced seven winners, and 4-year-olds three winners. Runners aged 6 or above have not secured a victory. We find more or less similar Top 3 ratios for 4-year-olds and 5-year-olds, while runners aged 6 or above have tended to struggle. Incidentally, among the four runners aged 6 or above that finished in the Top 3, three had experience of winning a G1 race (including overseas G1 races). In other words, we should lower our expectations of runners aged 6 or above who have yet to win a G1 race. [Table 2]

Focus on runners coming from the Tenno Sho (Spring) or the Osaka Hai
The Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years had all contested one of the nine races shown in the table below in their previous race. There were many examples of strong performances by runners coming from the Tenno Sho (Spring) or the Osaka Hai. In addition, among runners that had contested their previous race overseas, those coming from the Dubai Sheema Classic often fared well. [Table 3]

Runners starting in Bracket 8 shine with five wins
Over the last 10 years, looking at performances by runners in the last nine races held at Hanshin Racecourse in terms of bracket number, we find that runners starting in Bracket 8 dominated, notching five wins. While this could be a coincidence, we should not underestimate runners starting in Bracket 8. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Runners with success in spring G1 races have the edge
The last six winners had all contested a G1 race (including overseas G1 races) in the spring season of the same year in their previous race, and finished in the Top 3 of that race. There will likely be a fair number of horses that ran well in their previous race, but restricting the selection to those that have placed in the Top 3 of a G1 race should narrow the field significantly. This data could be helpful in choosing the winner. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)