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October 20, 2025

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Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) (G1) - Data Analysis

Final leg of the classic races where countless dramas have unfolded
One of the main attractions of the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) is the showdown between proven horses and rising stars. For example, Contrail secured the victory—achieving an undefeated sweep of the Triple Crown races—in 2020, while Durezza dominated in 2023 without having entered the two spring legs of the classic races. Let’s now analyze some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years, including the 2021 and 2022 races held at Hanshin Racecourse.

Strong performance by highly favored runners in recent years
While runners backed as 6th or lower have finished in the Top 3 several times in the past, in the years since 2019, at least two of the three Top 3 finishers have consistently been backed as 5th favorite or higher, and zero Top 3 finishers have emerged from among runners backed as 10th or lower. Going by trends in recent years, therefore, we can conclude that highly favored runners have the edge in the race. [Table 1]

[Table 1] Performance by favoritism (last 10 years)
Favoritism Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
1st favorite 3-0-3-4 30.0% 30.0% 60.0%
2nd favorite 2-3-0-5 20.0% 50.0% 50.0%
3rd favorite 1-1-0-8 10.0% 20.0% 20.0%
4th favorite 2-2-1-5 20.0% 40.0% 50.0%
5th favorite 1-0-1-8 10.0% 10.0% 20.0%
6th-9th favorite 1-3-3-33 2.5% 10.0% 17.5%
10th favorite or lower 0-1-2-86 0% 1.1% 3.4%

Check performances in 2,200m+ turf races
The 3,000-meter distance will be uncharted territory for the three-year olds, so an important consideration will be whether or not they can overcome the distance. Looking at historical performances of the runners, we find that 26 of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years had experience of winning a 2,200m+ turf race or finishing in the Top 3 of a graded 2,200m+ turf race. In other words, past performance in 2,200m+ turf races is likely to serve as an indicator. [Table 2]

[Table 2] Performance by experience of winning a 2,200m+ turf race or finishing in the Top 3 of a graded 2,200m+ turf race (last 10 years)
Experience Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
Yes 8-9-9-89 7.0% 14.8% 22.6%
No 2-1-1-60 3.1% 4.7% 6.3%

Watch ranking in terms of the estimated time over the final three furlongs in the previous race
Looking at performances of runners in the last 10 races held at Kyoto Racecourse (2015-2020, 2023 and 2024) by ranking in terms of their estimated time over the final three furlongs in their previous race, we find that runners that were ranked 3rd or higher achieved the strongest success ratios. This suggests we should focus on runners capable of sustaining a strong final sprint. [Table 3]

[Table 3] Performance of runners by ranking in terms of estimated time over final three furlongs in previous race (for races held at Kyoto Racecourse in 2015-2020, 2023 and 2024)
Ranking Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
3rd or higher 7-6-7-53 9.6% 17.8% 27.4%
4th or lower 1-2-1-66 1.4% 4.3% 5.7%

Focus on runners coming from trial races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we note that runners coming from the Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St. Leger Trial) produced the largest number of Top 3 finishers, at 11, followed by those coming from the Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen (Japanese St. Leger Trial), at nine. We should therefore first turn our attention to runners coming from trial races. [Table 4]

[Table 4] Performance by previous race (last 10 years)
Previous race Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
Tokyo Yushun
(Japanese Derby)
0-1-0-2 0% 33.3% 33.3%
Kobe Shimbun Hai
(Japanese St. Leger Trial)
4-3-4-52 6.3% 11.1% 17.5%
Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen
(Japanese St. Leger Trial)
4-3-2-35 9.1% 15.9% 20.5%
Sapporo Kinen 0-1-0-3 0% 25.0% 25.0%
Radio Nikkei Sho 1-0-0-2 33.3% 33.3% 33.3%
3-win class 1-1-0-6 12.5% 25.0% 25.0%
2-win class 0-1-4-35 0% 2.5% 12.5%
Race other than the above 0-0-0-14 0% 0% 0%

In addition, the seven Top 3 finishers that had come from a 3-win class or 2-win class race had all contested a 2,200m turf race in their previous race. The runners in this group achieved a Top 3 ratio of 50.0%, and included 2023 winner Durezza, 2024 runner-up Redentor, and 2024 third-place finisher Admire Terra. [Table 5]

[Table 5] Among runners coming from 3-win class or 2-win class race, performance by distance of previous race (last 10 years)
Distance of previous race Performance
[1st-2nd-3rd-4th or lower]
Win ratio Top 2 ratio Top 3 ratio
2,200m turf 1-2-4-7 7.1% 21.4% 50.0%
Other 0-0-0-34 0% 0% 0%

Seek out the winner!
Finish and favoritism in the previous race are also key factors

As shown in Table 4, eight of the last 10 winners had previously contested either the Kobe Shimbun Hai (Japanese St. Leger Trial) or the Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen (Japanese St. Leger Trial). Given that seven of these winners had also finished in the Top 3 of their previous race, we should regard runners fresh off a strong performance in a trial race as leading win contenders. Although 2021 winner Titleholder was beaten to 13th in the Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen, he had entered that race backed as the race favorite. Two other winners that had come from a non-trial race had also been backed as the race favorite in their previous race, so we should check favoritism in the previous race when looking beyond runners that have performed well in a trial race. [Table 6]

[Table 6] Winners’ previous race (finish) and favoritism in that race (last 10 years)
Year Winner Previous race (finish) Favoritism in previous race
2015 Kitasan Black Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen
(Japanese St. Leger Trial) (1st)
6th favorite
2016 Satono Diamond Kobe Shimbun Hai
(Japanese St. Leger Trial) (1st)
1st favorite
2017 Kiseki Kobe Shimbun Hai
(Japanese St. Leger Trial) (2nd)
2nd favorite
2018 Fierement Radio Nikkei Sho (2nd) 1st favorite
2019 World Premiere Kobe Shimbun Hai
(Japanese St. Leger Trial) (3rd)
3rd favorite
2020 Contrail Kobe Shimbun Hai
(Japanese St. Leger Trial) (1st)
1st favorite
2021 Titleholder Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen
(Japanese St. Leger Trial) (13th)
1st favorite
2022 Ask Victor More Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen
(Japanese St. Leger Trial) (2nd)
1st favorite
2023 Durezza Nihonkai Stakes (1st) 1st favorite
2024 Urban Chic Asahi Hai St. Lite Kinen
(Japanese St. Leger Trial) (1st)
2nd favorite

 

(Maya Takanami)

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