Champions Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Ultimate contest that brings together dirt top talent
In 2023, Lemon Pop notched a commanding victory in the Champions Cup after also having dominated the same-year February Stakes, a performance that earned him the JRA Award for Best Dirt Horse. His winning streak carried on into 2024, when he achieved back-to-back victories in the same two aforementioned races and received the honor of being named JRA’s Best Dirt Horse for a second consecutive year. To better understand the defining characteristics of this race, which is widely regarded as the pinnacle of dirt racing, we analyzed results over the last 10 years.

Poorly favored runners should not be overlooked
Race favorites have achieved a Top 2 ratio of 70.0% over the last 10 years. Meanwhile, in the three races where the race favorite was beaten to 4th or lower, the runner backed as 3rd favorite finished in the Top 2. Making a selection from among the highly favored runners would therefore appear to be the prudent strategy. However, in nine of the 10 last races (excluding 2019), runners backed as 6th favorite or lower also placed in the Top 3. In 2023, 12th favorite Wilson Tesoro finished in 2nd place and 9th favorite Dura Erede in 3rd place. As several poorly favored runners have also finished in the Top 3, this is a race where it pays to keep an eye on even the lesser-fancied runners. [Table 1]

Horses with a change of jockey are worth a closer look
In 2023, Wilson Tesoro and Dura Erede both entered the race with a change of jockey from their previous race and turned in strong performances, finishing 2nd and 3rd, respectively. Looking at performances by jockey over the last 10 years, we find that there was no major difference in success ratios between horses that were ridden by the same jockey as in the previous race and those that were ridden by a different jockey. However, among the 15 runners in the latter group who finished in the Top 3, nine were backed as 8th favorite or lower. This suggests we should not overlook horses entering with a change of jockey from their previous race, even if they are backed by low favoritism. [Table 2]

Over half of the Top 3 finishers came from a NAR dirt graded race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we find that runners coming from the Mile Championship Nambu Hai delivered strong performance, with a Top 3 ratio of 43.8%. Those coming from the JBC Classic delivered the highest number of Top 3 finishers. Runners in these two groups collectively made up 17 of the 30 Top 3 finishers. Including runners whose previous start was in races such as the JBC Ladies’ Classic and the Nihon TV Hai, runners coming from a NAR dirt graded race have produced nine winners overall. [Table 3]

Focus on runners that have finished in the Top 5 of their previous race
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 23 had finished in the Top 5 of their previous race, so the finish order in the previous race may serve as a reference point. Runners that had finished 6th or lower in their previous race have produced zero winners, so at the very least it would be wise to avoid backing them as win contenders. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Runners with previous wins in G1/Jpn1 races dominate
Nine of the last 10 winners (excluding 2022 winner Jun Light Bolt) had contested a NAR dirt graded race in their previous race and finished in the Top 5. Another shared feature among the nine winners was that they had all won a dirt G1/Jpn1 race since the previous year. This suggests we should consider runners’ past record when selecting win contenders. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)