Hanshin Juvenile Fillies (G1) - Data Analysis

Race that determines the best 2-year-old filly
The Hanshin Juvenile Fillies is a G1 race restricted to 2-year-old fillies. Last year, the race was held as a 1,600m turf race at Kyoto Racecourse. This year, it returns to its original home, Hanshin Racecourse, where it will be similarly contested over 1,600 meters on turf. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on data over the last 10 years.

Runners with numbers 14 and above struggle
Looking at performances by horse number in the last nine races held at Hanshin Racecourse (excluding the 2024 race held at Kyoto Racecourse), we observe that horses with mid-range numbers from 7 to 12 produced 14 Top 3 finishers, including nine Top 2 finishers. Even in terms of Top 3 ratio, we find that runners with mid-range numbers achieved the highest results. Conversely, runners with numbers 14 and above delivered performance of [0-1-0-42] (Top 3 ratio of 2.3%), producing only one Top 3 finisher. [Table 1]

Check distance in previous race
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in the last 10 years, 23 had contested a 1,600m+ race in their previous race. Within this group, the small number of runners that had previously contested a 1,800m race (16 in total) delivered six Top 3 finishers. Even when looking at success ratios, runners coming from a 1,600m or 1,800m race have outperformed those coming from a race with a distance of 1,500m or less. When comparing the previous race of the runners, runners coming from a 1,600m+ race should be rated highly. [Table 2]

Also watch favoritism in the previous race
Among the last 10 winners, seven had been backed as 2nd favorite or higher in their previous race. Runners that had been backed as 2nd favorite or higher in their previous race also achieved a Top 3 ratio of 27.3%, outperforming those backed as 3rd favorite or lower. In addition, runners that had been backed as 3rd-5th favorite in their previous race produced eight Top 3 finishers but zero winners. Conversely, runners that had been backed as 6th favorite or lower produced four Top 3 finishers and three winners. When targeting a longshot, it may be interesting to lock it in as the pick to win. [Table 3]

Runners with previous success in a graded race fare well
In the last 10 years, 20 Top 3 finishers, including nine winners, had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of a graded turf race. Runners without experience of contesting a graded turf race also delivered respectable results, producing seven runners-up, but we should first raise our expectations of runners who have shown good form in a graded turf race. In addition, a total of 39 runners whose best result in a graded turf race was 4th or lower took part in the race, and every one of them finished outside the Top 3. In other words, runners with this profile should be heavily discounted. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check favoritism and body weight on the race day
The last 10 winners were backed as 5th favorite or higher in the race. In addition, all winners entered the race at a weight of 460kg or more. This year, we should once again look for win contenders among horses that meet these conditions. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)