February Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Majority of Top 2 finishers backed as 5th favorite or higher
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that runners that were backed as 5th favorite or higher accounted for 17 of the 20 Top 2 finishers and 22 of the 30 Top 3 finishers. Although there have also been examples of dark horses rising to the top, the data suggest that we should raise our expectations of highly favored runners. [Table 1]

Strong performances by horses aged 6 or below
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we observe that horses aged 6 or below accounted for 24 of the 30 Top 3 finishers. While there has certainly been no shortage of strong performances from veteran horses, relatively younger horses appear to have the edge. [Table 2]

Recent change in previous race of Top 3 finishers
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we note that, among the 30 Top 3 finishers, 12 came from G1/Jpn1 or overseas G1 races, 4 from G2/Jpn2 races, and 14 from G3/Jpn3 races. However, if we limit our analysis to the previous two years, we find that, among the 6 Top 3 finishers, 2 came from G2/Jpn2 races and 4 from G3/Jpn3 races. In other words, we should keep in mind that runners coming from G1/Jpn1 races have finished outside the Top 3 in the last two years. [Table 3]

Next, looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in their previous race, we note that 25 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had been backed as 4th favorite or higher in their previous race. When comparing the previous race of the runners, we should also check their favoritism. [Table 4]

Distance of previous race a decisive factor
The last 10 winners had all run either a 1,400m or 1,800m race last time out. Other shared features among the 10 winners were that they were aged 6 or below, and that they had been backed as 6th favorite or higher in their previous race. [Table 5]

(Masaya Ibuki)