Osaka Hai (G1) - Data Analysis

Basically, the focus should be on leading favorites
Over the last nine years, during which the race was held as a G1 race, there has never been a case which all the horses ranked among the Top 3 favorites finished fourth or lower. In eight of the nine years, two or more runners backed as 5th favorite or higher finished in the Top 2, suggesting the leading favorites have the edge. However, runners backed as 10th favorite or lower finished in third place in 2023 and 2024, so lesser-fancied runners are not completely out of contention. It may therefore be wise to cast a wider net for the supporting picks in Trio and Trifecta bets. [Table 1]

Watch 5-year-olds
Of the 27 Top 3 finishers over the last nine years, 25 were aged 5 or below. In particular, 5-year-olds warrant attention, and if we limit our analysis to 5-year-olds backed as 2nd favorite or higher, we find that such runners delivered performance of [4-1-0-1], boasting a high Top 2 ratio. Given that the two winners backed as 6th favorite or lower and two third-place finishers backed as 10th favorite or lower were also 5-years-olds, it would appear that runners in this age group are worth backing regardless of their popularity. [Table 2]

Strong performance by runners coming from G2 races
Looking at performances by runners over the last nine years in terms of their previous race, we observe that runners coming from JRA G1 races or overseas G1 races have achieved relatively high Top 3 ratios. However, three race favorites coming from JRA G1 races were also beaten to 4th or lower, so putting too much faith in this group could be dangerous. Meanwhile, runners coming from G2 races led the way in Top 3 finishes, with a total of 18, including eight of the nine runners that finished in the Top 3 while backed as 6th favorite or lower. In other words, when taking a chance on a dark horse, it could be a good idea to focus on runners coming from G2 races. [Table 3]

Runners starting in the inner brackets struggle somewhat
Looking at performances by runners over the last nine years in terms of bracket number, we find that runners starting in Brackets 3-8 each produced three or more Top 3 finishers, while runners starting in Brackets 1-2 only produced 2 or fewer Top 3 finishers, putting them at a disadvantage. It is also worth noting that runners starting in the inner brackets have not produced any winners, suggesting they may warrant some discounting. [Table 4]

Check affiliation and finish in previous race
As illustrated in Table 2, the last nine winners were all 4-year-olds or 5-year-olds. These winners were also all based at Ritto Training Center. Moreover, with the exception of 2023 winner Jack d’Or who came from an overseas G1 race, all winners had finished in the Top 5 of their previous race, so we should also check the finish in their previous race. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)