Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1) - Data Analysis

Leading favorites have the edge
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that runners backed as 2nd favorite delivered the strongest performance, recording five wins. The race favorites and runners backed as 3rd favorite also achieved decent Top 3 ratios, and in the last 10 years, there has been no instance of all runners backed as 3rd favorite or higher finishing outside the Top 3. Based on historical trends, therefore, it seems sensible to build combination bets around runners backed as 3rd favorite or higher. [Table 1]

No major difference in performance by bracket number, but …
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we do not observe a marked difference between the inner and outer brackets. However, if anything stands out, it is that the last 10 winners started the race in Brackets 2-7. In other words, no winners have emerged from the inner- or outermost brackets. [Table 2]

Watch runners coming straight from the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we note that runners coming from the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies—the championship race for 2-year-old fillies—delivered the strongest performance. Within this group, runners backed as 2nd favorite or higher delivered performance of [3-3-0-0], achieving a Top 2 ratio of 100%. Among runners that had contested a trial race last time out, those coming from the Tulip Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas Trial) achieved a high Top 3 ratio, while those coming from the Hochi Hai Fillies’ Revue (Japanese 1000 Guineas Trial) had low success ratios. Meanwhile, none of the 20 runners coming from the Anemone Stakes, which is held at Nakayama Racecourse, finished in the Top 3. [Table 3]

Check finish in previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in the previous race, we find that runners that had finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd achieved more or less similar success ratios. This suggests that a 2nd- or 3rd-place finish in the previous race should not be a cause for concern. However, success ratios drop significantly for runners who were beaten to 4th or lower in their previous race. In other words, we should use a Top 3 finish in the previous race as primary selection filter. [Table 4]

Target runners with a high career Top 2 ratio
Runners that had previously been beaten to 6th or lower, even if only once, have produced zero winners in the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) since 2013. Among the last 10 winners, six had achieved a Top 2 ratio of 100% since their debut race. The remaining four winners had also achieved high Top 2 ratios of 66.7% or above, and had previously either won a graded race or finished 2nd at least twice in a graded race. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)