Tenno Sho (Spring) (G1) - Data Analysis

Highly favored runners perform strongly
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that the last 10 winners were all backed as 3rd favorite or higher. Although runners backed as 10th favorite or lower have also finished in 2nd place, even the least-fancied of the Top 3 finishers over the last five years was backed as 6th favorite. In other words, favorites have dominated the race in recent years, and if this trend is anything to go by, it is probably best not to spread our picks too wide. [Table 1]

Runners aged 6 or above tend to struggle
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we note that 4-year-olds produced the highest number of Top 3 finishers (13), followed by 5-year-olds (8). Success ratios drop off with age, and only one runner aged 6 or above has secured the victory—namely, T O Royal in 2024. Among runners aged 7 or above, the highest finish was 2nd place by Curren Mirotic in 2016. [Table 2]

Focus on runners that have won a long-distance graded race last time out
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 23 had contested a domestic G2 race in their previous race, with 14 such runners coming from the Hanshin Daishoten. Within this group, those that had won the Hanshin Daishoten delivered excellent performance of [3-2-2-2]. Taking also into account the fact that 2025 winner Redentor entered the race after notching the win in the Diamond Stakes, we should raise our expectations of runners that have won a long-distance graded race in their previous race. [Table 3]

No difference in performance between runners starting in the inner and outer brackets
Looking at performances by runners in the eight races held at Kyoto Racecourse over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we observe that runners starting in Bracket 4 achieved a Top 3 ratio of 37.5%, showing a slight edge in the statistics. However, in terms of the total number of Top 3 finishers, the data do not favor any particular bracket. Even when comparing the inner brackets up to Bracket 4 with those from Bracket 5 outward, we do not find any significant difference in the number of Top 3 finishers, so the inside-outside-bracket distinction does not appear to be a factor. [Table 4]

Performance in long-distance G1 races speaks volumes
The last 10 winners all had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of a 3,000m+ G1 turf race. As this race determines Japan’s top stayer, strong form in long-distance races appears to be a solid measure of distance aptitude. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)