Victoria Mile (G1) - Data Analysis

Dark horses frequently finish in the Top 3
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their favoritism, we find that, while race favorites have achieved a Top 3 ratio of 70.0%, runners backed as 3rd favorite or higher have produced only 10 Top 3 finishers, compared to 11 for runners backed as 6th favorite or lower. In other words, we should expect less-fancied runners to have a strong chance of rising to the top. [Table 1]

Watch horses aged 5 or below
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their age, we note that horses aged 5 or below accounted for 26 of the 30 Top 3 finishers. Meanwhile, horses aged 6 or above only produced four Top 3 finishers, so this suggests that relatively younger horses have the edge. [Table 2]

Many strong performances by runners coming from a G2 race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we observe that the 30 Top 3 finishers had all contested a graded race last time out. In addition, within this group, 15 runners came from a G2 race. This suggests that we should probably raise our expectations of runners coming from G2 races such as the Sankei Sports Hai Hanshin Himba Stakes—a prep race for the Victoria Mile. [Table 3]

Focus on favoritism in the previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in their previous race, excluding those that had contested an overseas race last time out, we find that runners that had been backed as 4th favorite or higher in their previous race made up 21 of the 28 Top 3 finishers. When comparing the most recent race of the runners, we should therefore also check their favoritism in that race. [Table 4]

Course aptitude is an important factor
The last six winners all had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of a graded turf race contested over a distance of 1,600m at Tokyo Racecourse. Runners that have finished in the Top 3 in a graded race contested on the same course as the Victoria Mile should therefore be regarded as leading contenders. [Table 5]

(Masaya Ibuki)