Shuka Sho (G1) - Data Analysis

Watch highly favored runners
The last 10 winners of the race were all backed as 4th favorite or higher, while nine of the 10 runners-up were backed as 5th favorite or higher. That said, four 3rd-place finishers were backed as 6th favorite or lower, showing that longshots can still sneak into the placings. Nevertheless, the safest approach is to build selections around the strongly fancied runners. [Table 1]

Runners starting in Brackets 1 and 8 tend to struggle
Looking at performances by runners in the eight races held at Kyoto Racecourse over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we find that runners starting in Brackets 1 and 8 failed to place in the Top 2, with neither producing a finish better than 3rd. The two race favorites that started in Bracket 1 were both defeated to 6th or lower, while last year’s race favorite, Kamunyak, finished 16th from Bracket 8. In other words, runners starting in either of the two outermost brackets should be treated with caution, regardless of their betting popularity. [Table 2]

Strong performance by runners coming from the Japanese Oaks
Among the last 10 winners, seven came from the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks). In addition, runners coming off a Top 3 finish in the Japanese Oaks delivered strong performance of [6-1-3-3], with a Top 3 ratio of 76.9%. Another three victories were secured by runners coming from the Shion Stakes (Shuka Sho Trial). Meanwhile, eight runners coming from the Kansai Television Co. Ltd. Sho Rose Stakes (Shuka Sho Trial) finished in the Top 3, but none managed to win. [Table 3]

Position in previous race is also a key factor
In the eight races held at Kyoto Racecourse over the last 10 years, runners that set the pace have managed no better than 2nd, including Erika Express last year. Looking at performances by position when passing the 4th corner in the previous race, runners that were among the first four at that point recorded low Top 3 ratios, with 2nd place being their best result. These trends suggest that this race poses a particularly tough challenge for runners racing on or near the lead. [Table 4]

Check performance in the Japanese Oaks
As noted earlier, six of the last 10 winners had finished in the Top 3 of the Japanese Oaks in their previous race. Of the remaining four winners, Vivlos (2016) did not contest the Japanese Oaks, while Deirdre (2017) had finished 4th and Stunning Rose (2022) had finished 2nd. Although last year’s winner, Embroidery, had finished only 9th in the Japanese Oaks, she had started as the race favorite. These trends suggest that the leading contenders are best sought among runners that either finished near the top or were strongly fancied in the Japanese Oaks. [Table 5]

(Maya Takanami)