Tenno Sho (Autumn) (G1) - Data Analysis

Race favorites have the edge
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that race favorites achieved an excellent Win ratio of 70% and Top 2 ratio of 80%. In addition, in each year when the race favorite was beaten to 4th or lower, the runner backed as 2nd favorite claimed the victory. Conversely, among a total of 54 runners backed as 10th favorite or lower, only one managed to achieve a Top 3 finish. In other words, this race strongly favors highly fancied runners. [Table 1]

3-year olds have an excellent record
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we observe that runners aged 6 or above have rarely performed well, with Top 3 finishers primarily falling in the 3-to-5-year-old bracket. Among these, 3-year-olds have been particularly impressive, securing a Win ratio of 30% and a Top 3 ratio of 50%. If any 3-year-olds enter the race this year, they should be our primary focus. [Table 2]

Watch runners coming from a G1 or G2 race
The last 10 winners had all contested one of five G1 or G2 races in their previous race: the Takarazuka Kinen, the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), the Yasuda Kinen, the Sapporo Kinen, or the Sankei Sho All Comers. Furthermore, no runner coming from a G3 or lower-grade race placed in the Top 3. Notably, of the 32 runners coming from the Mainichi Okan (G2), a major prep race, none finished higher than 3rd place. [Table 3]

Favoritism in previous race is an indicator
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in their previous race, we find that eight of the 10 last winners had been the race favorite in their previous race. Runners who had been the race favorite last time out also achieved a Top 3 ratio of 48.1%, while those that had been backed as 2nd favorite secured a Top 3 ratio of 43.5%, indicating a high level of reliability. Conversely, no runners that had been backed as 5th favorite or lower in their previous race finished in the Top 2. These figures suggest that favoritism in the previous race is a useful indicator for predictions. [Table 4]

Runners with track record of success in G1 races at Tokyo Racecourse are leading contenders
Seven of the last 10 winners had experience of winning a G1 race held at Tokyo Racecourse. The remaining three had all finished in 2nd place in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby). We should therefore focus on runners that have enjoyed success in G1 races held at Tokyo Racecourse. [Table 5]

(Yodohito Himezono)