Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Watch runners backed as 5th favorite or higher
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that nine of the 10 winners and 20 of the 30 Top 3 finishers were backed as 5th favorite or higher. Although it has not been uncommon for less-fancied runners to secure high placings, the leading favorites should still be rated highly. [Table 1]

Many Top 3 finishers were aged 4 or below
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we observe that horses aged 4 or below accounted for 22 of the 30 Top 3 finishers and recorded a higher Top 3 finish ratio than those aged 5 or above. We should therefore prioritize relatively younger horses over older ones. [Table 2]

Previous race grade is an important indicator
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the previous race, we note that runners coming from G1 or G2 races accounted for 26 of the 30 Top 3 finishers. This suggests that runners coming from higher-grade races are likely to chase the top places. [Table 3]

Bracket number is also a key factor to watch
Looking at performances by runners in the races held at Kyoto Racecourse (2016-2019 and 2023-2025) over the last 10 years in terms of bracket number, we find that 20 of the 21 Top 3 finishers started in Brackets 1-6. By contrast, of the total of 34 runners starting in Brackets 7 and 8, only one managed a Top 3 finish. These figures indicate that runners starting in Brackets 1-6 have the edge. [Table 4]

Focus on finish and time difference with the winner in the previous race
The last 10 winners had all won their previous race, or finished 2nd or lower with a time difference of 0.5s or less with the winner in that race. We should therefore generally focus on runners that won their previous outing or, if beaten, did not suffer a heavy defeat. Other shared features among the 10 winners were that they were all aged 5 or below, and that they had contested a graded race in their previous race. This suggests we should also take into consideration the trends shown in Tables 2 and 3. [Table 5]

(Masaya Ibuki)