Data Analysis for the “2015 Shuka Sho (G1)”

Big autumn test for 3-year-old fillies

In recent years, the favorites have tended to dominate the Shuka Sho. But there was a huge upset in 2008 when the first three past the post were the 11th, 8th and 16th favorites, in that order, producing a Trifecta payout of more than 10 million yen. Pacing seems to be the tricky issue on the inner 2,000m turf course at Kyoto Racecourse, where this race is held, and many less-favored horses have succeeded here in the past. This year, too, it will be useful to check a few notable points. One of those might be to compare runners coming into this race on the back of successful spring records with others that have newly emerged as contenders over the summer.

Check performances by favoritism to win

Looking at the runners’ performances by favoritism to win and by win odds over the last 10 years, every winner (excluding the big upset in 2008) has been backed among the Top 3 favorites to win. However, four fillies backed as “6th-8th favorite” have finished in 2nd place, while if we look at performances by win odds, many runners with win odds higher than 10-1 have finished 2nd and 3rd. Incidentally, only twice in the last 10 years have the first three places all been filled by horses backed among the Top 4 favorites to win (2009 and 2014). We should be on the lookout for long shots again this year. [Table 1] [Table 2]

Runners from the Rose Stakes rule the roost

Turning to performances by the runners’ previous race over the last 10 years, 19 of the 30 Top 3 finishers in that time had most recently appeared in the “Rose Stakes.” Only one filly (Kawakami Princess in 2006) has won this race without a prep race, coming straight from the “Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks).” Although the last Shuka Sho was won by a horse previously seen in the “Shion Stakes,” that race was held at Niigata Racecourse last year; no horse coming straight from the Shion Stakes when held at Nakayama Racecourse has finished in the Top 3 since Lady Pastel took 3rd place in 2001. [Table 3]

Look for strong performers last time out

Of the last 10 winners of the Shuka Sho, seven had finished in the Top 2 in their previous outing. And all 10 runner-ups had finished in the Top 3 last time out. Incidentally, two winning horses had finished “4th” in their previous race (Apapane in 2010, Meisho Mambo in 2013), but both of them were Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) winners and were beaten 4th in the Rose Stakes in their first outing of the autumn. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Check the recent race record

All of the last five winners of the Shuka Sho had experienced being beaten to 4th or 5th place in an open-class race within their previous four outings. If any of this year’s runners have had a similar experience (almost coming in the Top 3 in an open-class race) in their last four races, they should definitely be worth a look. [Table 5]

(Data analysis by Yasunori Asano)