Data Analysis for the “2015 Copa Republica Argentina (G2)”

Future dreams up for grabs in the “53rd Copa”

The Copa Republica Argentina is a handicap turf race contested over 2,500m at Tokyo Racecourse. This race is sometimes won by horses without previous success in graded races; in 2008, maiden winner Screen Hero went on to win the Japan Cup and achieve greatness. On the other hand, both of the last two winners (Asuka Kurichan in 2013 and Fame Game in 2014) had already won graded races. So which way will it go this time? Let’s delve into results over the last 10 years to see if we can find an answer.

Lively showing from 4-year-olds

Viewing aggregate performances by age over the last 10 years, six of the 10 winning horses were “4-year-olds.” As for the others, “5-year-olds” and “6-year-olds” have produced two winners each, but “4-year-olds” are way out ahead in terms of success ratios. Be particularly wary of “7-year-olds and up” – of 37 race entrants, only one has finished in the top three (7-year-old Coin Toss, placed 3rd in 2005). [Table 1]

Favored horses dominate

Being a handicap race, the Copa Republica Argentina could be expected to yield its fair share of dark horses. Yet if we look at performances by win odds over the last 10 years, we find that 16 of the 20 top 2 finishers were backed by win odds of less than 10-1. In other words, the more highly favored runners are dominant. To illustrate this point further, of 72 entrants with win odds of “30.0 or more,” only one has finished in the top 3 (Cosmo Helenos, 3rd in 2010). [Table 2]

Check favoritism last time out

Turning to performances by favoritism in the previous race, 17 of the 20 top 2 finishers over the last 10 years had been backed as 5th favorite or higher in their most recent outing. And although three of the runners-up had been 10th favorite or lower last time out, horses in that group have a top 2 ratio of only 5.8%. Meanwhile, no horse backed as “6th-9th favorite” in the previous outing has finished in the top 2 – but interestingly, six of them have finished 3rd. [Table 3]

Look for recent disappointment despite high favoritism

In eight of the last 10 years (the exceptions being 2006 and 2008), a horse with a track record of “top 2 favoritism but a finish of 4th or lower in an open class turf race over 2,200m or more within the last 4 outings” has come 1st or 2nd in the Copa Republica Argentina. This year, too, we might anticipate a rebound performance by a horse that had a disappointing result despite strong favoritism in a recent outing. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Spate of wins by horses contesting that year’s Sankei Sho All Comers

The last 3 winners of the Copa Republica Argentina had all appeared in that year’s Sankei Sho All Comers, finishing between 4th and 6th. Of all the winning horses over the last 20 years since 1995, the only other one to have contested that year’s Sankei Sho All Comers was Active Bio in 2003. As a recent trend, it might be worth checking for runners appearing in this year’s Sankei Sho All Comers. [Table 5]

(Data analysis by Yasunori Asano)