Copa Republica Argentina (G2) - Data Analysis

Important handicap graded race offers a step up to the big year-end deciders

After his maiden graded race win in last year’s Copa Republica Argentina, Gold Actor went on to take the Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) next time out, joining the ranks of G1 winners in the process. As it happens, Gold Actor’s sire Screen Hero had also won his first graded race in the 2008 Copa Republica Argentina, and had followed this with his maiden G1 victory in the Japan Cup. So which of this year’s runners will prevail in this hard-fought handicap graded race, with hopes of stepping up to the bigger races ahead? This time, let’s analyze features shared by successful runners in this race, based on results over the last 10 years.

Previous race finish and favoritism are key

Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 20 had finished “4th or higher” in their previous race. These horses also had good success ratios, including a Top 3 ratio of 31.3%. The Copa Republica Argentina could basically be seen as favoring horses that were in good form last time out. [Table 1]

Moreover, of horses finishing “5th or lower” last time out, those backed as “5th favorite or lower” in that race have had a particularly hard time, with a Top 3 ratio of only 3.7%. We should probably lower our expectations of horses that not only failed to make the top places last time out, but were also not among the higher-ranking favorites. [Table 2]

Check the “final dash” last time out

Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 22 were positioned “Among the best 4” in their time over the final three furlongs (estimated) in their previous race. The horses in question also have excellent success ratios, including a Top 3 ratio of 31.9%. When comparing the detail of the runners’ previous outing, we would do well to check their “final dash” as the race reached its climax. [Table 3]

Moreover, of horses with a final three furlong time (estimated) ranked “5th or lower,” those with no experience of finishing 4th or higher in a turf graded race at Tokyo in the same year have ever finished in the Top 2 here; their Top 3 ratio is a miserable 1.2%. We should not be expecting great things from horses that failed to achieve one of the higher final three furlong times last time out, and have also had no experience of success in a turf graded race at Tokyo since the turn of the year. [Table 4]

Younger horses dominate

Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 17 were aged “4 and under.” By contrast, not only do runners aged “5 and up” have a poor Top 3 ratio of 10.5%, but those aged “7 and up” have not even managed a single Top 3 finish. When comparing horses of different ages, our focus should be on the younger ones. [Table 5]

Again, of runners aged “5 and up,” none of those lacking experience of finishing 4th or higher in JRA G1 or G2 races in the same year has finished in the Top 2 here; their Top 3 ratio is also poor at only 3.4%. When comparing older horses, our assessment should be based on their track record since the turn of the year. [Table 6]

Discount runners with low weight carried

Of 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 24 carried weight of “55kg or more.” Conversely, runners carrying “Less than 55kg” not only have a poor Top 3 ratio of 8.1%; they have also failed to produce a single Top 2 finish since 2009, with aggregate performances of [0-0-2-41] (Top 3 ratio 4.7%), or a single Top 3 finish since 2013, with [0-0-0-20]. While this is a handicap race, with weight carried according to each runner’s track record, we had better not expect too much of horses carrying extremely light handicaps. [Table 7]

Seek out the winner!

Focus on runners offering maximum positives

Each of the last six winners “finished 6th or higher last time out”, “was among the top 4 favorites last time out”, “had one of the best 4 final three furlong times (estimated) last time out” and “carried weight of 55kg or more in this race.” If limited to years since 2010, moreover, horses that cleared all of these conditions achieved excellent aggregate performances of [6-3-2-6] (Top 3 ratio 64.7%). When attempting to predict the winner, we should aim to pick out runners with maximum positive features, referring to the trends highlighted in Tables 1 to 7. [Table 8]

(Masaya Ibuki)