Mile Championship (G1) - Data Analysis

The autumn mile champion decider
The favorite has failed to win the Mile Championship since Company took the crown of mile champion at the age of 8 in 2009. Since then, the race has produced a flurry of upsets: the winner in the following year, 2010, was 13th favorite A Shin Forward, while the 8th favorite Danon Shark took the spoils in 2014. On the other hand, the first three places were taken by the 1st to 3rd favorites in 2013 and by three of the top four favorites in 2015. As this shows, there are also years when strongly backed performers deliver the goods. So what sort of trends can we find in the Mile Championship, the race that decides the autumn’s champion miler? Let’s take a look by analyzing results mainly from the last 10 years.

Check the latest record except G1
If we first look at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their recent race record, we find that the 30 Top 3 finishers in this race are equally divided between those finishing “1st” and “2nd or lower,” respectively, in their most recent outing (excluding G1 races), but those in the “1st” group have far higher success ratios. [Table 1]

Next, on aggregating performances of horses beaten to “2nd or lower” by the time difference behind the winner of that race, those with a difference of “0.3 seconds or less” have produced far more Top 3 finishers and far better success ratios than those with time differences of “0.4-0.9 seconds” and “1.0 second or more.” We should be looking for runners with a win in their most recent outing (except G1 races), or if finishing 2nd or lower, those that were only beaten by the finest of margins. [Table 2]

Look at finishes in the last two outings
Turning next to performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their last two finishes, those finishing “1st in both of the last two outings” have the highest success ratios, followed in Top 2 and Top 3 ratios by those with “A higher finish last time out compared to the race before that.” After this come horses with “The same finish in both races (except 1st),” while those with “A lower finish last time out compared to the race before that” have the lowest success ratios of all. Runners on a streak of wins and those with improving results over the last two races seem more likely to be chasing the top places here. [Table 3]

Check favoritism in most recent turf race over 1,600m or less
Of 20 Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years, 18 had been backed among the Top 5 favorites in their most recent turf race over distances of 1,600m or less within their last four outings. This year too, it would seem prudent to check the favoritism of runners in their most recent race answering this description. [Table 4]

High premium on recent success in G1 turf races
A difference in Top 2 ratios arises depending on whether or not the runners had contested a G1 turf race within their last 4 outings. Of runners with such experience, the three groups with best finishes of “1st” to “3rd” in that race have recorded Top 3 ratios of 25% or higher here, better than those with best finishes other than these. It seems we should place a premium on horses that have recent experience of contesting G1 turf races and were among the best finishers in that race. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Check the position at the 4th corner last time out
All four winners since 2013 had passed the 4th corner between “1st and 5th” positions in their most recent outing. Although some of these four won the Mile Championship brilliantly from a chasing position, the fact that even they passed the 4th corner between 1st and 5th positions last time out might be worth remembering. [Table 6]

(Michio Kawano)