Champions Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Main year-end event at Chukyo Racecourse
Until 2013, the Champions Cup was held at Hanshin Racecourse under the name “Japan Cup Dirt.” In 2014, it was renamed “Champions Cup” and its location moved to Chukyo Racecourse. This year’s race will be the fifth Champions Cup held at the Chukyo, and the race has become firmly established as the main year-end event at the venue. Last year, Gold Dream won the race by overtaking two runners that had led the pack in the final sprint, leaving the two runners in 2nd and 3rd place, respectively. This year, we can again expect a fierce battle in which the distinct strengths of each runner will be on full display. Let’s now analyze some trends in this race over the last 10 years, including those races up to 2013, when the race was still held at Hanshin Racecourse as the Japan Cup Dirt.

Check performance by age
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we observe that all winners have been horses aged 4 to 6, with horses aged 5 or 6 enjoying the highest success ratios. Horses aged 3 or 7 produced some Top 3 finishers, but had lackluster success ratios. [Table 1]

Watch dark horses
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of win odds, we find that five of the six runners backed by win odds of 2.9 or lower finished in the Top 3. Runners backed by win odds below 10 produced six of the 10 winners and runners with win odds in the 10 range three winners. Runners with win odds in the “15.0-19.9” range achieved a Top 2 ratio of 50%. In the four years since the move to Chukyo Racecourse, runners backed as 6th favorite or lower have consistently produced one of the Top 2 finishers, so we recommend again keeping an eye on dark horses this year. [Table 2]

Focus on runners that were strong performers in previous outing
Of the 20 Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years, 19 had finished in the Top 5 of their previous race (excluding 2008 winner Kane Hekili, which finished 9th in its previous outing in the Musashino Stakes). In addition, nine of the 10 third-place finishers achieved a Top 3 finish in their previous race. This year, we should again check runners that delivered strong performance in their previous race. [Table 3]

Heavier horses enjoy success
Eight of the 10 last winners weighed in at 500kg or more. However, the only strong performer among extremely heavy horses (540kg or more) was Copano Rickey (546kg), which achieved a third-place finish in 2017. Horses weighing in at 458kg or less turned in lackluster performances, with the only strong performer being 2015 runner-up Nonkono Yume (452kg). The fact that horses weighing in at 480-498kg delivered zero winners is also an interesting statistic. [Table 4]

Look at performance by previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, we observe that runners that had contested the JBC Classic as their previous race delivered the largest number of strong performers. Among runners that had contested a NAR race in their previous outing, runners that came from the Mile Championship Nambu Hai delivered two winners. Among runners that had contested a JRA race in their previous outing, runners that came from the Miyako Stakes or Musashino Stakes delivered similar performances, but we note that the Miyako Stakes was canceled this year because the JBC races were organized by JRA. In other words, runners coming from the JBC Classic held at Kyoto Racecourse on Nov. 4 is likely to attract more attention than in previous years. [Table 5]

Watch favoritism and finish in G1/G2/top-level dirt race within last four outings
In the last 10 Champions Cup races (including Japan Cup Dirt races through 2013), runners that “had been backed as 2nd favorite and finished in the Top 3 of a G1/G2/top-level dirt race within their last four outings” consistently finished in the Top 2. This year, we also recommend checking the recent track record of the runners. [Table 6]

Seek out the winner!
Check performance in same-year G1/top-level dirt race over a mile
The last three Champions Cup winners were runners that had experience finishing in “5th place” in a 1,600m G1/top-level dirt race held in the same year. In other words, we should check the finish of this year’s runners in 1,600m G1/top-level dirt races held from the start of the year. [Table 7]

Note: When there is more than one race in question, the most recent one is shown.

(Yasunori Asano)