Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) (G1) - Data Analysis

Year-end national event with lineup of stellar performers
In 2017, race favorite Kitasan Black won the Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix), capping off his career with a seventh G1 title. Of the 34 race winners since 1984 (when the grading system was introduced), only Gold Actor (2015) and five others achieved their first G1 victory in this race. Moreover, only two runners that had no experience of finishing in the Top 3 of a G1 race emerged as winners: Dai Yusaku (1991) and Matsurida Gogh (2007). In addition, while race favorites suffered eight consecutive defeats from 1986 and 1993, they delivered solid performance (13-4-1-6) from 1994 to 2017. This year again, the big question is whether one of the fancied runners will live up to expectations, or whether a dark horse will take us all by surprise and snatch the spoils. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Focus on runners with favorable track record in right-handed G1 race
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 26 had experienced a Top 3 finish in a “JRA right-handed G1 race since the previous year.” Meanwhile, runners without such experience struggled with a Top 3 finish of 5.3%. In other words, we should raise our expectations of runners with a favorable track record in a G1 race held at Nakayama, Kyoto, or Hanshin Racecourse. [Table 1]

Watch “grade” of previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the condition of the previous race, runners that contested a race “other than a G1 race” in their last outing struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 8.3%. When comparing the lead-up races of this year’s runners, we should focus on runners that contested a major domestic or overseas race in their last outing. [Table 2]

In addition, the four Top 3 finishers that contested a race “other than a G1 race” in their last outing, entered a race with a distance of 2,500m or less and were ranked 2nd or higher in their estimated time over the final three furlongs in that race. Among runners that did not contest a major domestic or overseas race in their last outing, we should lower our expectations of runners that contested a race with a longer distance than the Arima Kinen in their last outing, and of runners that did not perform well in the final sprint of that race. [Table 3]

Discount horsed aged 6 or above
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, horses “aged 6 or above” have produced zero winners, and achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 8.3%. In addition, the last horse “aged 6 or above” to finish in the Top 3 of the Arima Kinen was 8-year-old Air Shady in 2009 (third place). We can therefore expect comparatively older runners to struggle. [Table 4]

Bracket number also a key point
Looking at performances by runners over the last 9 years in terms of bracket number, we observe that runners starting in “Bracket 8” were consistently beaten to 4th or lower. Although the 2008 race saw a 1-2 finish of the “Bracket 8” runners, we should not expect too much from runners starting in the far outer brackets. [Table 5]

In addition, if we confine our analysis to runners that had no experience of winning a “JRA G1 race from June of the same year,” we observe that not only runners starting in “Bracket 8” but also those starting in “Bracket 7” were all beaten to 4th or lower. Moreover, runners starting in “Bracket 6” produced zero Top 2 finishers and had a Top 3 ratio of only 7.7%. In other words, we should also lower our expectations of runners that have not won a major race since June of this year and are starting the Arima Kinen in “Bracket 6” or “Bracket 7.” [Table 6]

“Lighter” horses have struggled in recent years
Of the 15 Top 3 finishers over the last five years, 13 runners had contested a “domestic race” in their last outing and weighed in at “470kg or more” in that race. Incidentally, among runners that had contested an “overseas race” in their last outing, 2013 winner Orfevre weighed in at 466kg in the Arima Kinen, while 2014 third-place finisher Gold Ship weighed in at 510kg. If trends in recent years are anything to go by, horses weighing in at less than 470kg are likely to struggle. [Table 7]

Seek out the winner!
Number of runners and finish in previous race are decisive factors
The last 10 winners all entered a previous race contested by 17 or more runners. When comparing the lead-up races of this year’s runners, we should therefore focus on runners that contested a “large field” race in their last outing. In addition, the 10 winners all finished in the Top 6 of their previous race. This means we should lower our expectations of runners coming straight from a major defeat. Other shared features among the 10 winners were that they had experience of finishing in the Top 3 of a “JRA right-handed G1 race since the previous year,” and that they were aged 5 or less, as illustrated in Tables 1 and 4. [Table 8]

(Masaya Ibuki)