February Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Pulsating dirt champion decider
The last two February Stakes unfolded as close contests that were decided in the final stages, with the top three each separated by a neck in 2018, and the runner-up coming in a neck behind the winner in 2017. Every year, this ultimate dirt contest run over 1,600m at Tokyo Racecourse turns into a fierce battle. This year as well, many of the top contenders in dirt racing will be facing off in the February Stakes, which is regarded as a milestone race. Let's now analyze some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Horses aged 5 or less are strong performers
Looking back at the February Stakes over the last 10 years, we observe that horses aged 4 and 5 each delivered four winners and three runners-up. Although 6-year-olds have produced two winners, 4- and 5-year-olds also achieved the highest success ratios. Incidentally, the two horses aged 8 and above that finished in the Top 3 had both won a 1,600m graded dirt race in the autumn of the previous year. [Table 1]

Runners backed by high favoritism enjoy success, but …
Looking back at the February Stakes over the last 10 years, we note that six out of seven runners backed by win odds of "2.9 or lower" finished in the Top 3. Other notable findings are that runners backed by win odds of "7.0-9.9" produced zero winners and only one runner-up, and the fact that while runners backed by win odds of "10.0-14.9" enjoyed success, those with win odds of "15.0-19.9" fared poorly. In addition, runners backed by win odds of "20.0 or higher" delivered three winners. [Table 2]

Bracket number also affects performance
The winners over the last 10 years all started the race in brackets 1, 2, 6, 7, or 8. Five of the 10 runners-up started in brackets 7 or 8. Among third-place finishers, three runners started in bracket 3 and four in bracket 5. In other words, we can see a distinct trend in bracket numbers among strong performers. [Table 3]

Watch performance by previous race
Looking back at the February Stakes over the last 10 years, runners that had contested either the Champions Cup (including its predecessor, the Japan Cup Dirt) or the Negishi Stakes in their previous race each delivered three winners, and runners that had come from the Tokai Stakes two winners. Runners that had contested an NAR race last time out produced only one winner, while runners that had contested another race performed poorly. Incidentally, runners that had contested the Negishi Stakes in their previous race delivered six Top 3 finishers, all of which had also finished in the Top 3 of the Negishi Stakes. [Table 4]

Also focus on strong performers in 2,000m race at Oi Racecourse
Looking back at the February Stakes over the last 10 years, runners that had "finished in the Top 3 of a 2,000m race held at the Oi Racecourse since June of the previous year" finished in the Top 2 every year other than 2018. Although this trend did not apply in 2018, we should check for a favorable track record in 2,000m races at Oi Racecourse. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Last three winners had won a graded race at Tokyo Racecourse within last four outings
The winners of the last three February Stakes had all won a graded dirt race at Tokyo Racecourse within their last four outings. If any of this year's runners have recently won a graded dirt race at Tokyo Racecourse such as the Negishi Stakes, the Musashino Stakes, or the Unicorn stakes, it may be a good idea to check them out. [Table 6]

(Yasunori Asano)