Yasuda Kinen (G1) - Data Analysis

Spring mile champion decider
Although the Yasuda Kinen was won by the race favorite in the three years from 2013, the winners in the three years from 2016 were all runners backed as 7th favorite or lower. Over the last 10 years, 15 of the Top 3 finishers were backed as 6th favorite or lower, suggesting we should not overlook poorly favored runners. Let’s now look at results over the last 10 years in search of some trends in this spring mile champion decider.

Check favoritism in previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in their previous race, we observe that 5 of the 10 winners were backed as the race favorite last time out. Runners backed as “4th favorite” last time out produced higher success ratios than those backed as “1st favorite,” and runners backed as “2nd favorite” also delivered higher Top 2 and Top 3 ratios than those backed as “1st favorite.” In addition, runners backed as “6th-9th favorite” last time out produced 5 Top 3 finishers, but those backed as “10th favorite or lower” were all beaten to 4th or lower. In other words, runners with extremely low favoritism have continued to struggle. This suggests favoritism in the previous race is a factor worth considering. [Table 1]

Prepare for strong performance by horses aged 6 and above based on trends in recent years
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we find that horse ages “7 or above” produced zero winners. Excluding the 3 horses aged “3” that have contested the race, there were no major differences among horses aged 4 to 6. However, if we limit our analysis to the previous five years, we note that the 15 Top 3 finishers comprised 4 horses aged 4, 2 horses aged 5, and 9 horses aged 6 or above. Although last year’s winner and third-place finisher were both 4-year-olds, runners aged 6 and above have performed well in recent years. [Table 2]

Trend in carrying weight in previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of carrying weight in the previous race by colts and geldings on the one hand, and fillies on the other, we note that colts and geldings with a heavier carrying weight achieved higher success ratios (albeit with some variation by handicap races and other special weight races): 21 of the 28 colts and geldings that finished in the Top 3 had a carrying weight of 56.5kg or more in their previous race. In other words, for colts and geldings, we should focus on horses that had a carrying weight of 56.5kg or more in their last outing. In addition, 13 fillies have entered the race over the last 10 year, and all contested the Victoria Mile in their previous race (carrying weight of 55kg). [Table 3] [Table 4]

Focus on position when passing 4th corner in previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of position when passing the 4th corner in their previous race, we observe that 5 of the 10 winners were in “10th or lower” position when they passed the 4th corner in their previous race. A closer look at success ratios reveals that runners in “7-9th” or “10th or lower” position when passing the 4th corner in their previous race were the two groups with the highest Top 2 and Top 3 ratios. This year, we should again check runners that were positioned 7th or lower when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Compare favoritism in last two races
When comparing favoritism in the last two races for the 10 last winners after excluding the three runners that contested an overseas race in their previous two outings, we find that the remaining seven winners all were either “favored equally in their last-but-one race and previous race” or “favored more strongly in their previous race than in their last-but-one race.” In addition, 9 of the 10 winners were backed as “5th or higher” in a recent domestic race. If any of this year’s runners meet these conditions, we should not discount them. [Table 6]

(Michio Kawano)