Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) (G1) - Data Analysis

Grand Prix that closes out the first year of the Reiwa era
This year’s Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) will be the first since Japan entered the new Reiwa era. The race is a year-end Grand Prix that has been contested by a long line of famous horses that have gone down in Japanese racing history (spanning both the Showa and Heisei eras). What kind of spectacle will unfold this year, and will performances live up to the dreams of fans and other stakeholders? As we approach this highly anticipated curtain closer of the first year of the Reiwa era, let’s analyze some trends in results over the last 10 years.

Raise expectations of runners that have finished in Top 4 of recent G1 turf race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in a recent G1 turf race, we find that nine of the 10 winners had finished in the Top 4 of such a race. Runners that had finished “6th-9th” in a recent G1 turf race produced one winner (2009 winner Dream Journey, who finished 6th in his last outing in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), and runners that had been beaten to 7th or lower in a recent G1 turf race produced no winners in the last 10 years. In other words, we should raise our expectations of runners that have finished in the Top 4 of a recent G1 turf race. [Table 1]

Check favoritism in recent JRA turf race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in a recent JRA turf race, we find that eight of the 10 winners had been supported as “1st favorite” in such a race. In addition, the eight consecutive winners since 2011 had all been supported as “1st favorite” in a recent JRA turf race. Furthermore, three of the five runners-up since 2014 had been supported as 2nd favorite or higher in such a race. In recent years, runners that were highly favored in a recent JRA turf race have been more successful. [Table 2]

Watch number of wins in recent races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the number of wins within their last four outings, we note that seven of the 10 winners notched 2 or more wins within their last four outings, and that runners with “3 or more” and “2” such wins both achieved Top 3 ratios over 30%. While runners with “1” and “0” wins (112 in total) outnumbered runners with “3 or more” and “2” wins (44 in total) by about 2.5x, the latter group sharply outperformed the former in terms of the number of wins. In addition, if we limit our analysis to the last four years, we observe that all four winners had achieved 2 or more wins in their last four outings. In recent years, runners with a higher number of wins in recent races have produced a larger number of winners. [Table 3]

Check positioning in previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their position when passing the 4th corner in their previous race, seven of the nine winners (excluding those that contested their previous race overseas) had passed the 4th corner in 6th or higher position in their previous race. Runners that had contested a JRA race last time out and had passed the 4th corner in 7th or lower position in that race delivered two winners (2009 winner Dream Journey [14th position] and 2018 winner Blast Onepiece [9th position]), but had lower success ratios than those that had passed the 4th corner in “1st-3rd” position or “4th-6th” position. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Watch time difference with runner-up in recent victory
Looking at performances by the last 10 winners in terms of the time difference with the runner-up in a JRA race victory within their last five outings, we find that eight winners (excluding 2013 winner Orfevre and 2014 winner Gentildonna) had experience of winning such a race with a time difference of “0.2s or more” with the runner-up. In addition, 2013 winner Orfevre had won the Prix Foy (France) by three lengths two races back, and 2014 winner Gentildonna had won the Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE) by 1 and a half lengths four races back. In other words, we should watch runners that have experience of winning a recent JRA race with a time difference of 0.2s or more, and also not overlook runners that have experience of winning an overseas race with a substantial lead. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)