Hopeful Stakes (G1) - Data Analysis

Note: “1-win,” “2-win,” and “3-win” classes correspond to the previous “5 million yen-or-less,” “10 million yen-or-less,” and “16 million yen-or-less” classes.

Middle-distance race champion decider for 2-year-olds
The Radio Nikkei Hai Nisai Stakes was a 2,000m turf race held at Hanshin Racecourse through 2013. In 2014, the race was moved to Nakayama Racecourse, its name changed to Hopeful Stakes, and its grade elevated to G2. From 2017, the Hopeful Stakes was upgraded to a G1 race. While the two G1 races for 2-year-olds held at Hanshin Racecourse are contested over a distance of 1,600m, the Hopeful Stakes is a longer 2,000m turf race contested at Nakayama Racecourse, thus resembling the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas). Let’s now look for some trends in this race based on data for the last 10 races held at Nakayama Racecourse, including those held from 2014 as a G1 and G2 race, and those held between 2009 to 2013 as a 2,000m turf open-class stakes race.

Check performance by favoritism
Looking at performances by runners in the last 10 races under analysis in terms of favoritism, we find that runners backed as 1st favorite achieved a Top 2 ratio of 60.0%, while runners backed as 2nd favorite achieved a Top 2 ratio of 30.0% and a Top 3 ratio of 70%, reflecting strong performance. Among other runners, those backed as 6th-8th favorite produced two winners, three runners-up, and two third-place finishers. In addition, looking at performances by win odds, eight of the 10 winners were backed by win odds of 9.9 or lower, and six runners-up were backed by win odds of 6.9 or lower. [Table 1] [Table 2]

Check racecourse at which previous race was contested
Looking at performances by runners in the last 10 races under analysis in terms of the racecourse at which the previous race was contested, we observe that most of the top performers had contested their previous race at either Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse, although the race schedule admittedly is a factor here. Of the 24 runners that had contested their previous race at Nakayama Racecourse, only two finished in the Top 3. [Table 3]

Runners that won previous race are strong contenders
Looking at performances by runners in the last 10 races under analysis in terms of finish in the previous race, we note that runners that had won their previous race were strong performers. Only two runners were able to bounce back from a 4th or lower finish in the previous race to finish in the Top 3. In addition, looking at runners that had won their previous race by grade of that race, we find that runners that had triumphed in a newcomer race last time out produced six winners but zero runners-up, which is an interesting statistic. [Table 4] [Table 5]

Non-Japanese jockeys perform well
In the last 10 races under analysis, horses ridden by non-Japanese jockeys (including Mirco Demuro and Christophe Lemaire after both obtained full-term JRA jockey licenses) delivered nine winners and five runners-up, a strong performance. They also achieved a Top 3 ratio of 50.0%. [Table 6]

Check date of debut race
In the last five Hopeful Stakes, “runners that had debuted in a turf race with a distance of 1,600m-1,800m by August of the same year” consistently finished in the Top 2. In addition, such runners occupied the entire Top 3 last year. [Table 7]

Seek out the winner!
Last three winners had won the race following their first victory with no change in body weight
A feature shared by the last three winners of the Hopeful Stakes was that “they had won the race following their first victory with no change in body weight.” It may be interesting to watch whether a runner that meets this condition wins the race again this year. [Table 8]

(Yasunori Asano)