Champions Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Autumn dirt champion decider
Until 2013, the Champions Cup was held under the name Japan Cup Dirt. In 2014, it was renamed Champions Cup and moved to Chukyo Racecourse. As its name suggests, the race attracts elite Japanese runners and decides the autumn dirt champion. Let’s now analyze the data for the last 10 years, including the period from 2010 to 2013, when this dirt race was held as the Japan Cup Dirt at Hanshin Racecourse over a distance of 1,800m.

Strong performance by runners backed as 6th favorite or lower warrants attention
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism, we find that race favorites and runners backed as 3rd favorite achieved excellent Top 3 ratios of 70.0% and 60.0%, respectively. Race favorites have produced one winner and three runners-up since 2016, and have consistently finished in the Top 2 over the last four years. Meanwhile, runners backed as 6th to 9th have produced nine Top 3 finishers and achieved a Top 3 ratio of 22.5%, exceeding the corresponding ratio for runners backed as 4th and 5th favorite. It is therefore worth remembering that runners backed as 6th to 9th favorite have often chased the top places in this race. [Table 1]

Strong showing from 5 and 6-year-olds
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of age, we observe that 6-year-olds achieved the highest Top 3 ratio, followed by 5-year-olds. In the six years since 2014, when the Champions Cup was moved to Chukyo Racecourse, 6-year-olds have produced two winners, three runners-up, and one third-place finisher, putting six runners in the Top 3. We should mention that two of the runners in this group were Sambista (winner of 2015 race, backed as 12th favorite) and Sound True (winner of 2016 race, backed as 6th favorite). Conversely, 4-year-olds have only produced one winner (Gold Dream in 2017, backed as 8th favorite) and two Top 3 finishers since 2014 (2017 winner Gold Dream and 2018 third-place finisher Sunrise Soar). [Table 2]

Check previous race
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of previous race, we note that many runners came straight from the JBC Classic, the Miyako Stakes, or the Musashino Stakes, and that these runners also produced a large number of Top 3 finishers. Among the runners in this group, those coming from the JBC Classic enjoyed the highest success ratios, although the difference with runners coming from the other two races was minimal. The seven runners that had contested the Mile Championship Nambu Hai in their previous race produced three Top 2 finishers. This suggests that in addition to runners coming from major warmup races such as the Miyako Stakes or the Musashino Stakes, we should keep an eye on runners that have contested a NAR top-level dirt race as their previous race. [Table 3]

Runners that have finished in Top 3 of previous race deliver strong performance
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of finish in the previous race, runners that had finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd last time out achieved much higher success ratios than those that had finished 4th or lower. Of the total runners participating in the Champions Cup, 86 had finished in the Top 3 of their previous race, and 71 had finished 4th or lower in their previous race. Although these numbers were not that far apart, runners in the former group produced 24 Top 3 finishers in the Champions Cup and runners in the latter group only 6, revealing a major gap. [Table 4]

(Michio Kawano)