NHK Mile Cup (G1) - Data Analysis

Spring mile champion decider for 3-year-olds
In addition to crowning the 3-year-old spring mile champion, the NHK Mile Cup has produced famous winners such as King Kamehameha and Deep Sky that went on to triumph in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in their next race. Let’s now look into some trends in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Focus on runners with three or more Top 2 finishes in JRA races
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of track record, 27 of the 30 Top 3 finishers had finished in the Top 2 of three or more JRA races. There was no major difference in Top 3 ratios between runners with three Top 2 finishes and those with four or more Top 2 finishes, but we note that the latter group produced seven winners and the former group three, which is a significant discrepancy. When predicting the potential winner, we should focus on runners with a higher frequency of Top 2 finishes. [Table 1]

Watch the number of races contested since the turn of the year
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of the number of races contested since the turn of the year, six of the last 10 winners had entered two races, and the remaining four winners three races. Runners in other race frequency groups produced zero winners. However, runners that had only entered one other race since the turn of the year achieved the highest Top 3 ratio of 29.2%. These statistics may serve as a reference when making predictions. [Table 2]

Strong performance by runners that led the pack last time out
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of position when passing the 4th corner in the previous race, eight of the last 10 winners had passed the 4th corner in 5th or higher position. Runners in this group also achieved high success ratios. This suggests we should focus on runners with the ability to lead the pack. However, runners that were off-pace or stretch runners in their previous race have also finished in 2nd and 3rd position. For example, five runners that had passed the 4th corner in 10th or lower position in their previous race finished in 3rd place. [Table 3]

Runners backed as race favorite last time out have an edge
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in the previous race, we find that runners that had been backed as race favorite produced six winners and achieved a Top 3 ratio of 40.0%. Incidentally, nine of the 10 Top 3 finishers that had been the race favorite in the previous race, competed in a graded race last time out. In other words, runners that have been backed as the race favorite in a previous high-grade race are likely to perform well in this G1 race. [Table 4]

Seek out the winner!
Focus on track record in graded races
The seven winners since 2014 had all achieved a Top 2 finish as their highest finish in a graded race and several Top 3 finishes in such races. When predicting a potential winner, we should raise our expectations of runners that have repeatedly performed well in graded races. [Table 5]

(Michio Kawano)