Shuka Sho (G1) - Data Analysis

Final hurdle of the Triple Crown for three-year-old fillies that delivers few upsets
In 2021, runners backed by win odds of less than 10 dominated the Top 3 of the Shuka Sho, resulting in a Trifecta payout of only 26,410 yen. In the 18 years since Trifecta bets were introduced in 2004, the Trifecta payout for this race has dipped below 20,000 yen eight times, and below 10,000 yen four times. Conversely, it has only exceeded 100,000 yen three times. The 2008 race produced a massive Trifecta payout of 10,982,020 yen, but highly favored runners generally tend to fare well in this race. Let's now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years including the years through 2020, when the race was held at Kyoto Racecourse.

Focus on runners from "Kansai stables" based at Ritto Training Center
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 24 were based at Ritto Training Center. Conversely, runners based at Miho Training Center struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 8.7%. Incidentally, four of the six Top 3 finishers based at Miho Training Center belonged to the Sakae Kunieda stable. [Table 1]

Strong performers last time out have an edge
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers in the last 10 years, 28 had finished in the Top 5 of their previous race. Meanwhile, runners that had finished 6th or lower struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 3.4%. [Table 2]

In addition, of the 15 Top 3 finishers in the last five years, 14 had finished in the Top 4 of their previous race. If trends in recent years are anything to go by, we need to discount runners that have finished 5th or lower in their previous race. [Table 3]

Sluggish performance by runners that led the pack last time out
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 23 had been positioned 5th or lower when passing the 4th corner in their previous race. Conversely, runners that had been positioned 4th or higher struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 9.7%. [Table 4]

In addition, four of the seven runners that finished in the Top 3 despite being positioned 4th or higher when passing the 4th corner in their previous race, were sired by Deep Impact. We should therefore expect little from runners that were positioned 4th or higher when passing the 4th corner in their previous race and that were sired by a horse other than Deep Impact. [Table 5]

Favoritism in previous race also a key factor
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of favoritism in the previous race, we find that runners that had been backed as 2nd favorite or higher in that race achieved a relatively strong Top 3 ratio of 33.9%. Conversely, runners that had been backed as 7th favorite or lower struggled with a Top 3 ratio of 3.6%. When checking the details of the previous race, we should concentrate on favoritism in that race. [Table 6]

Performance in Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and races held since August of the same year has served as an important indicator in recent years
Of the 15 Top 3 finishers in the last five years, nine had finished in the Top 5 of the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks). Runners in this group achieved an excellent Top 3 ratio of 56.3%. This year, we should again be able to firmly place our trust in runners that have secured the top places in the Yushun Himba, which is another fillies' Classic. [Table 7]

In addition, five of the six runners that finished in the Top 3 of the Shuka Sho despite having finished 6th or lower in Yushun Himba or not entering that race, had experience of winning "a JRA 2-win class or higher-grade turf race over a distance of 1,800m+ since August of the same year." This suggests we should raise our expectations of runners that have triumphed in a 2-win class or higher-grade, middle- to long-distance turf race since this August, even if they did not occupy the top places in the Yushun Himba. [Table 8]

Seek out the winner!
Field size in previous race a decisive factor
The recent nine winners had all entered a race contested by 17 or more runners last time out. We should keep in mind that runners coming from small-field races have struggled to win. Other shared features among the nine winners were that they had finished 4th or higher in their previous race, had been positioned 5th or lower when passing the 4th corner in their previous race, and had been backed as 4th favorite or higher in their previous race. In other words, we should also take into consideration the trends shown in Table 3 to Table 7 when picking runners. [Table 9]

(Masaya Ibuki)