Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1) - Data Analysis

Spring classic races to kick off at Hanshin Racecourse
The Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) is the first leg of the Triple Crown for fillies. Among the last six winners, three went on to also dominate the second leg [Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks)] and the third leg (Shuka Sho) to claim the title of Japanese Fillies Triple Crown winner: Almond Eye in 2018, Daring Tact in 2020, and Liberty Island in 2023. Other famous names that have triumphed in the race include Gran Alegria (2019), who racked up six G1 wins in races with a distance of 1,600m or less. In other words, the race has been won by an impressive lineup of top performers in recent years. Let’s now analyze some features shared by successful runners in this race based on results over the last 10 years.

Consecutive wins by runners coming from a non-trial race in recent years
Looking at performances by runners over the last 10 years in terms of their previous race, the first thing we notice is that runners coming straight from a G1 race for two-year-olds enjoyed high success ratios. Among the 11 runners coming from the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies or the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, which together accounted for less than 10% of the total runners, Gran Alegria triumphed in 2019, Sodashi in 2021, and Liberty Island in 2023. The six Oka Sho races since 2018 (when Almond Eye was victorious) have been consistently won by runners coming from a non-trial race, including the three aforementioned winners. Runners coming from the Tulip Sho delivered the largest number of Top 3 finishers over the period, with five runners-up but no winners. We should keep these trends in mind when placing Exacta or Trifecta bets. [Table 1]

Among poorly favored runners, watch those coming from trial races
Gran Alegria, Sodashi, and Liberty Island all came straight from a G1 race and lived up to expectations by securing the win backed by high favoritism. Top 2 favorites who had previously contested a G1 race delivered performance of [3-2-0-0], proving to be even more reliable. Meanwhile, when turning our attention to poorly favored runners, we find that 10 runners backed as 6th to 9th favorite also finished within the Top 3. In this group, runners coming from the Tulip Sho or the Hochi Hai Fillies’ Revue achieved strong performance of [1-3-4-12] with a Top 3 ratio of 40.0%. We should look for dark horses in this group as runners backed as 10th favorite or lower have not achieved a Top 3 finish. [Table 2]

Also watch favoritism until the previous race
Looking at performances by runners in terms of favoritism in their previous race, we find that all winners over the last 10 years had been backed as 3rd favorite or higher in their previous race. In particular, runners that had contested a JRA graded race last time out as race favorites achieved performance of [8-3-4-16] with a high Win ratio of 25.8%. [Table 3]

In addition, all winners except 2015 winner Let’s Go Donki had been backed as 3rd favorite or higher, not only last time out but in all their previous races. Runners who had not been backed as 4th favorite or lower until entering the Oka Sho achieved a high Top 3 ratio of 35.8%. In this group, those that were also backed as 3rd favorite or higher in the Oka Sho turned in performance of [7-4-3-8], producing an even higher Top 3 ratio of 63.6%. [Table 4]

Runners without a proven track record in same-distance races inevitably struggle
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 27 had experience of finishing within the Top 3 of a graded race or winning an open-class race contested on a 1,600m turf track. Runners without such experience achieved only third place as their highest finish with a Top 3 ratio of 4.1%, suggesting a stronger likelihood they will struggle. Among runners coming with this kind of track record, we should especially focus our attention on those that have experience of finishing within the Top 3 of a 1,600m graded turf race held at Hanshin Racecourse, resembling the Oka Sho. Runners in this group delivered performance of [7-9-5-25] with a Top 3 ratio of 45.7%. [Table 5]

Seek out the winner!
Career starts and consistent performance also key factors
As is evident from Table 1, our main focus should be on runners that have also contested a 1,600m turf race in their previous race. Runners coming from races other than a 1,600m turf race produced only one winner: Reine Minoru in 2017. In addition, among the last 10 winners, Reine Minoru was also the only runner to enter the race with six or more career starts and experience of having been beaten to 4th or lower. In other words, we can conclude that “runners with five or fewer career starts, without experience of having been beaten to 4th or lower, and coming from a 1,600m turf race” are the most reliable win contenders. [Table 6]

(Maya Takanami)